Brief Interjection

The good thing about groin injuries, most specifically Angelo Esposito's groin injury, is that this way Pittsburgh hockey fans are not psychoanalyzing the play of an 18-year-old kid in games against other kids.

Here are some samples of what I'm missing out on this week.

He made a bad pass! He's not NHL ready!

Wow, slick hands! I'm licking my lips imagining him on Crosby's wing this season.

He doesn't understand how to play defense. There is no way, with that lack of defensive awareness, at his age, that he will ever be a productive NHL player.

Phenomenal play! He'll be a star!

Sutter benched him! He's gotta be a prima donna with an attitude problem.

Invisible on the ice! He's got bust written all over him.

Much as I did want to get my first look at my team's most recent first round draft pick in actual game action, I'm actually rather relieved I'm not listening to Pittsburgh hockey fans, or really, the diehards who are so hard-up for hockey they play with proxies for hours in order to watch hockey in the middle of the summer (and yeah, I usually count myself as one of the diehards) over-analyze Esposito's every play (the way certain others have already started to do with the other player who free-fell in the draft, the Rangers' Cherepanov).

Truth told, I know it's the Super-Series. I know hockey players play to win games and that the Canadian players are fighting for a spot on this year world junior squad. That being said, however, these are hockey games played in August. (Warning for sarcasm impaired: Snark forthcoming.) Fans jumping to conclusions and making lifelong career projections should at least save that exercise until these prospects line up against mature NHL talent in training camps. As for me, so long as Esposito's groin heals by training camp, I'll view the injury as a blessing in disguise--saving me, like all the other fans watching their team's prospects with eager, hopeful eyes--from eying every tiny play intently, and thinking aloud, through incessantly blogging, which tiny plays proclaim "boom" or "bust."

Now, about those other two types of fans. My baseball team's sudden surge of apparent competency has confounded me to the point of not yet composing those posts that I expect to be rather lengthy but hopefully, also, at least slightly amusing (if only amusing to me). To whet your appetites, however, ask yourself: Am I a squeamish hedge-my-bets moderate who swings both ways and is best described as incredibly indecisive, or am I a hard-nosed, harsh, cold cynical realist who is best described as seeing the negative in everything and in a word accurately labeled as a doomsayer?

If you've read this blog, you can probably guess where I best fit among the two remaining fan types. But rest assured: rather than read previews, predictions, and rankings of the top players in the game (so many other people do that so much better than I ever could, excluding The Hockey News, but more on that if and when I deem it a worthy blogging topic), you'll instead be able to read how the indecisive/hedge-bets-always moderates who can't make up their minds about anything and the cynical, hardened realistic doomsayers view their teams' chances this year. Again, of course, from the perspective of my team's home division, the Atlantic.

In the meantime, however, maybe I'll use that proxy. And waste time analyzing every other team's prospects. But then again, how is time spent watching the most fabulous sport in the world* ever wasted when one gets to see real hockey games played in August?

(*Apologies aren't necessary to other sports, but I feel the need to point out something that should be very evident. In succession, I have watched Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, and Sidney Crosby star for my team. Each player, provided Crosby stays healthy, will be regarded as among the best of all-time, and as the best player of their respective generations. When one watches such talent play, the utter fabulousness of the sport of hockey shines above all else--and I can only hope the NHL's marketing department clues into this fact sometime soon, too. But I digress, as usual, and that's a post for another day. But hockey season is right around the corner, and that's, plainly and simply and absolutely, fabulously fantastic.)

Fan Typology
Fan Type Number One: Fanatical, Delusional, or Just Plain Crazy?


In the midst of the long, lazy summer sans NHL hockey (a continuing theme, I realize), I have arrived at a--wait for it--yes, indeed--a serious conclusion. The vast majority of fans are often pretty much delusional when it comes to discussing and defending their favorite team.

How did I reach this conclusion? you ask. Well, sans actual games to watch, I've been reading various Internet items. (Never a good idea. I realize that, but until the actual games arrive, I don't have a real remedy for that problem.) In the NHL world, it is amazing how many fans of teams (cough, in the Atlantic Division, cough) want to defend their favorite team's at best mediocre defense corps. In the world of other sports, I've been astounded by fans who see hope for the future in a AAA baseball player who's nearing thirty and by NFL fans who somehow see a chance for their obviously rebuilding/mostly talentless team to contend for a division title.
(To spare your sanity, I won't link to the sites that offer such deluded fan commentary, but suffice to say, if, like me, you fritter away too much of summer reading on the Internet, you're likely to have come upon much of this delusional commentary yourself.)

As I pondered fan bases that seem to be overly optimistic and in my humble estimation thus delusional, or charitably, fanatical, I came to realize that I stumble across the rantings/opinion/equivocations of three types of fans in my online reading. For your summer enjoyment, I present to you the first type of the three fan types.

Fan Type #1: The Delusional and Overly Optimistic and Overly Defensive Fanatic
Description: You know this type well; in fact, I'd venture to say that the Delusional Fanatic is the most common fan to post rantings (or writing, depending on your perspective) in defense of their team. This is the fan who makes it very clear that while his or her team is not perfect, his or her team is simply superior to most other teams. At times, you are baffled at the logic (or more often complete or seeming lack thereof)of this fan. But there is no denying the emotional power and pull of this fan's arguments in defense of his team.
Hockey Examples: In the spirit of a Pittsburgh Penguins fan, I'll use Atlantic Division examples, and I'll even use one per team, and just for kicks, I'll start with my own team.

The Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins have the best player in the world in Sidney Crosby. Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal are so precocious and preciously unique that they will each add 30 points to their respective rookie scoring totals. Ryan Whitney will compete for the scoring lead among NHL defensemen, and so will Sergei Gonchar. Marc-Andre Fleury, despite what all the naysayers say, won 40 games last season, and he can surely do that again and probably win more games given his team's offense. And as for the team's much-maligned defense? Obviously, while not of the Pronger-Niedermayer variety, what other team has a defensemen scoring duo like Whitney and Gonchar? Also, Kris Letang and Darryl Sydor will look like Pronger and Niedermayer or at the very least two near-All Star level defensemen when compared to Joe Melichar and Rob Scuderi last year. The Pens will have so much puck possession that in-zone defensive coverage will rarely, if ever, be a problem. Oh, and expect Angelo Esposito, AHL All-Star Jonathan Filewich, and Petr Sykora to contribute at least 90 additional goals to the Penguins. Expect that just like last year, the Penguins will never suffer from any unfortunate injuries. And just to put the Penguins over the top, Gonchar's scoring prowess will so astound Mike Milbury, who ends his brief tenure with the NHL on NBC to become the new GM of the Anaheim Ducks after Brian Burke has a heart attack after sneaking a peek at Kevin Lowe's planned offer sheet to Ryan Getzlaf that Milbury will be glad to unhand Chris Pronger's salary to Pittsburgh in exchange for Sergei Gonchar and a 35-goal-scorer but now expendable fourth line center Erik Christiansen. (Yeah, okay, I made the part about Mike Milbury up, but the rest, including 35-goal-scorer and 4th line center Erik Christiansen, accurately sums up the beliefs of the delusional Pittsburgh fanatic.)

The New York Rangers: Do you know how good this team is? Let me tell you how good this team is. This team is led by two 600 goal future Hall of Fame wings who want nothing more than one last Cup victory. You have a team with Jaromir Jagr and Brendan Shanahan, and you just know that team is going to win. Jagr is going to beat Crosby and Thornton for the scoring title while remaining perfectly healthy for the entire season, and Shanahan will pot at least 40, but hopefully 50 goals. Chris Drury and Scott Gomez will fit in immediately and find chemistry with Jagr and Shanahan, respectively. Petr Prucha will return to his rookie season form and score 40 goals. King Henrik will finally win the Vezina he's so deserved. In addition to a phenomenal top six that will spend all their time in front of the opposing goaltender, the Rangers will have the league's best power play and the league's best goaltender. And for all the stupid Hockey News wants to talk about the Rangers' bottom six, the Rangers' bottom six are full of talent. While not playing as many minutes at the top 6, the bottom six forwards will contribute to the team by providing a timely goal at the right time--and lots of timely goals in addition to playing solid positional defense. The team will be well-coached by Tom Renney, who will have to make small adjustments for the various tiny, minor injuries that might hit any of the New York stars during the season. And as for the Rangers defense, well, it's not Niedermayer-Pronger, but again, who is? The Rangers are above average defensively even without their offensive prowess, and Hugh Jessiman's sudden ability to score at the NHL level will prompt Mike Milbury, the new GM of the Anaheim Ducks after Brian Burke falls into a coma after screening upcoming offer sheets, to accept Jessiman and 2 future first round picks in exchange for Chris Pronger at the trade deadline. (Author's Note: Hmm. Curious how Chris Pronger would be the cures for these "above-average" defenses that, admittedly, still lack a Chris Pronger. But the rest of the entry stands.)

New Jersey Devils: May I remind you who runs the Devils? That's right. Lou is a genius. No matter how many coaches he hires and fires, Lou is always a genius. No matter losing Brian Rafalski or Scott Gomez, the Devils will continue to do what the Devils have done for the past twelve years: The Devils will win, win, and win. The Devils will win because Martin Brodeur will break his own record for games won in a season despite the newfound presence of Kevin Weekes as his back-up goaltender. The Devils will win because Zach Parise will score all the key goals New Jersey needs at critical times. The Devils will win because they will be coached by an iron-fisted solid coach. In spite of the loss of key talent, the Devils will endure because of the system, Brodeur, and Lou--and that system is infallible. The Devils will take the division because the power of that trio--the system, Brodeur, and Lou--beats out any offensive firepower offered by other Atlantic teams.

The Philadelphia Flyers: Unlike their cross-state rivals, the Flyers will not wait to pile up once-in-a-generation draft picks to rebuild. No, the Flyers will be playoff contenders for certain and Cup contenders by season's end. The addition of Daniel Briere will be a boon as Briere will challenge for the league's scoring title. Additionally, Briere's presence will help Philly youngsters such as Carter, Lupul, and Harnell to score at least 120 total goals and to fulfill all their promising potential this season. Simon Gagne will capture the Rocket Richard trophy, and having endured injuries last season, the Flyers will not have to endure injuries or sophomore slumps this season. Additionally, Stevie Downie will be, surprisingly to non-Philly fans, one of the most formidable youngsters in the league. The Flyers, in their two summer blueline acquisitions, finally gained a legitimate number 1 pairing on defense, and as such, now have by far, the best defense in the conference, which is supplemented by the presence of Derian Hatcher, who excels at penalty killing. Goaltending, which has been a consistent Achilles heel in recent seasons will no longer be a problem due to the presence of trash-talking Martin Biron, who was stuck behind Ryan Miller in Buffalo but who will win the affection of the Philly fans for his ability to stop the puck as a number one NHL goaltender should. In sum, the Flyers have youth poised to break out, superstars in Briere and Gagne, legitimate number one defensemen, and a bonafide number 1 goalie. How can they not be considered superior to Pittsburgh, which still lacks number one defensemen and a reliable goaltender or to New York, who certainly doesn't have the defense necessary to contend? You've got to pencil in the Flyers for taking the Atlantic Division crown and then, at worst, advancing to the conference finals in the playoffs.

New York Islanders: Say these two names with me. Rick Dipietro. Ted Nolan. Rick Dipietro. Ted Nolan. Repeat. Repeat. That is all you need to know about why the Islanders can't be counted out of the Atlantic Division race, either. Rick Dipietro could be the best goaltender in the league, and the Islanders will be coached by Ted Nolan. And sure, other teams made "flashier" signings. But we made signings, too. We have Bill Guerin and Andy Sutton. We have reliable veterans who will be able to play the game the right way. And beyond that, our coach is going to ensure we play the game the right way. We will be pesky and win games you'd say we have no business winning because our coach knows how to coach and our goalie can stop the puck so much that we'll score just enough to be able to win a lot more games than we lose. So we don't have the flash-and-dash of the Pittsburgh or NYR's offense or the legendary Brodeur or a whole conglomeration of potential combustible elements that the Flyers do--we know what we have, a coach who knows how to win and a young goalie who's among the best. Expect the playoffs, at least, and from the playoffs, who knows what happens with a great coach and a hot goalie?

A Pause to Reflect on the Delusional Fanatic
Wow. That was an interesting exercise. If the delusional fanatics of Atlantic Division teams are to be believed:
1.) The Penguins and Rangers are both going to break team and potentially NHL scoring records.
2.) Jaromir Jagr and Brendan Shanahan are going to leapfrog still more people on the NHL all-time scoring list. Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Esposito, Whitney, and Letang are going to set record numbers of punditry tongues wagging about being this century's version of the 1980's Edmonton Oilers.
3.) All the Atlantic-Division starting goaltenders will win at least 40 games, and 40 games at bare minimum. Every Vezina Trophy nominee will come from the Atlantic Division.
4.) Speaking of awards, the Atlantic Division will sweep every major NHL award.
5.) The Atlantic Division will be known as the healthiest division in all of professional sports, where important players want to go to ensure they never suffer long-term or serious or even minor but aggravating injuries that hurt the team and impact performance.
6.) Every team in the Atlantic Division will make the playoffs, and Pierre McGuire will be absolutely correct when he predicts that the winner of the Stanley Cup will be an Atlantic Division team.


My Own Final Thoughts: In most rational moments (which, believe it or not, is most of the time when it comes to evaluating hockey, anyhow), I am clearly not a delusional fanatic. While I certainly believe that all teams will suffer from injuries, that the defensemen NYR fans so defend is the reason their team lost to Buffalo when Jagr had clearly shown exactly how Buffalo could be beat, that at some point in time the Devils' system will result in merely above average play rather than excellence, that the Islanders strike me, at best, as a team that will be an annoying pest simply because they're the team of Al Albour and David Volek (oh, painful history there), and that the Flyers are an interesting experiment that requires every element to combine (and I doubt they all will) to achieve excellence--it's probably best that I defend my claim that I am not a delusional fanatic with thoughts about my own team, which can easily be found by perusing the archives of my blog.

For example: I have stated Letang will make rookie mistakes, I have feared sophomore slumps for Malkin and/or Staal, I have feared long-term injuries to critical players, I have critiqued 2006-07 Jack Adams candidate Michel Therrien for his in-game strategy, and I have stated I think the Penguins could finish anywhere from atop the NHL to atop the Atlantic Division to home ice advantage to a low playoff seed to just out of the playoffs.

Thus, having said all that, am I the second type of fan or the third type of fan? Stay tuned.

ROSTER THOUGHTS AND TURNOVER

The roster of the Pittsburgh Penguins at the start of the 2006-07 season.

The roster of the Pittsburgh Penguins at the end of the 2006-07 season.

The roster of the 2007-08 Pittsburgh Penguins on August 8, 2007.

Notable Summer Additions to the 2006-07 roster: Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal,Mark Recchi, Jarko Ruutu, Nils Ekman, Dominic Moore, Ronald Petrovicky, Mark Eaton, Kristopher Letang, Michel Ouellet

Notable In Season Departures from the 2006-07 roster: Kristopher Letang (back to junior), John Leclair (retirement), Dominic Moore (traded)

Notable In-Season Changes to the 2006-07 roster: Max Talbot, Erik Christiansen (recalled from Wilkes-Barre), Gary Roberts, Georges Laraque (acquired via trade)

(Note: I didn't deem Chris Thorburn, Alain Nasreddine, or Joel Kwiatkowski, all that notable, nor is Noah Welch listed as "notable" for the mere fact that he wasn't on the big league roster at the start of the 2006-07 season.)

Now, for the 2007-08 season, what we know thus far:

Notable Summer Additions: Petr Sykora, Darryl Sydor (acquired via unrestricted free agency), Dany Sabourin, and (probably) Kris Letang

Notable Summer Subtractions: Michel Ouellet, Josef Melichar, Nils Ekman, Ronald Petrovicky, Jocelyn Thibeault

One guarantee comes with a NHL season, and that is this: The exact Pittsburgh Penguins team that begins the 2007-08 season will not be the same team that concludes the 2007-8 season. Player personnel will change.

So, for the moment, without offering my own commentary (there will be plenty of time for that later this summer), here are some questions for thought.**

1.) Will any players "surprise" in training camp and unexpectedly (a la Jordan Staal and Kris Letang) make the big league roster? Of those players, who will remain in the NHL the entire season? Who will be a contributing member to the team throughout the entire season?

2.) Which Wilkes-Barre players may not make the team out of training camp but will carve out permanent positions on the NHL team by season's end? How and when do you expect this player or players to find their way to Pittsburgh? Where will they find their niche?

3.) Will any veteran player, a la John Leclair, unexpectedly find themselves traded or out of the game entirely? How, when, and why will this occur?

4.) Which "piece of the future" (a la Noah Welch last season) may end up being sacrificed for the "present of the playoffs"? Who will be likely to go, and for what type of return?

5.) Who will be the most pleasant surprise (scoring-wise, e.g., think Staal's 29 goals of a year ago)? Who will fail to meet expectations (scoring wise, think Colby Armstrong's failure to score as he did when first alongside Crosby in 05-06)?


** In answering such questions, please accept that "no one" is an acceptable answer. Please also refrain from inane Malkin/Staal proposals (I know it's summertime, but really, it's nowhere time for such a trade at this point in the team's development). Likewise, please refrain from daydream trades (example: Gonchar + 2 tier-2 prospects=Shea Weber or Chris Pronger). Amuse yourselves merrily in the midst of summer.**

Oh, and one more *bonus* question, just for kicks:

The Penguins can obviously not afford to lose Sidney Crosby and Marc-Andre Fleury for any length of time. After the league's MVP and the team's starting goaltender, who can the Penguins LEAST afford to lose to an injury for an extended period of time? (I think I tentatively say Ryan Whitney, but I'll continue to ponder that question as well as my rationale for my tentative response.)

THE NHL AND PERFORMANCE ENHANCING DRUGS

This article prompted a conversation with the ice hockey-playing sibling(henceforth known as IHPB). His insights into the matter are more beneficial than mine (snark: though, of course, as a blogger, don't doubt that I'll share my own thoughts as well).

IHPB clearly says, in hockey-player speech, as well as his own natural bluntness, that Dick Pound is a "know-nothing douchebag," or the very near equivalent. Yet rather than expound on Dick Pound, IHPB offers one reason why professional hockey players could choose to take performance-enhancing drugs.

Primary Reason: IHPB explains that performance-enhancing drugs aid in recovery time. "When you're playing four games in seven nights," he explains, "and you've been thrown into the boards countless times by six foot four 230/240 pound guys, your body gets abused." IHPB explains that certain types of performance-enhancing drugs aid the body in recovery time and allow players to work out the same muscle groups repeatedly to maintain the strength and muscle necessary to endure a long season. Not all steroids, IHPB says, fall into the same stereotype of making players adding too much weight, and IHPB says he doesn't doubt that a small minority of professional hockey players do use performance-enhancing drugs "but nowhere near the percentage in baseball" or certain other sports.

In addition to offering the explanation that hockey players could benefit from performance-enhancing drugs in order to aid the body's recovery time, IHPB also notes that it's likely a very specific type of hockey player who would be taking performance-enhancing drugs. IHPB is certain that professional superstars are not taking performance-enhancing drugs, and he is likewise sure that goalies (where flexibility is so important) have little to gain from performance-enhancing drugs and thus don't partake. IHPB sees "enforcer-types as well as borderline fourth line players" as those players most likely to be taking performance-enhancing drugs. Old-style power forwards (e.g. ones who couldn't skate), as well as enforcers who don't have much skill aside from fighting, and players who take the body but provide little else to the game, are seen by IHPB to be the "1 to 2 guys per team" who could, possibly, be using performance-enhancing drugs.

Given that perspective from someone who's been playing hockey for nearly as long as he's been alive, I must now add my own thoughts (snark: the thoughts of a mere blogger). I don't doubt that certain hockey players have used performance-enhancing drugs. Yet, like IHBP, I also believe that those hockey players who have abused performance-enhancing drugs to be a small minority of NHL hockey players. I also firmly believe that, due to changes to the game in the new NHL, that the NHL players who could benefit from performance-enhancing drugs are a dying breed.

IHPB pointed out that many current fourth line players (at least on good teams)do not fit the stereotypical mold of unable-to-skate and just-bang-the-body. In today's game, even fourth line NHL players must be able to skate and keep up with the play without resorting to old-NHL interference tactics that were once unenforced. Likewise, in today's game, even the mold of a power forward is changing. A power forward, in addition to being able to stand in front of the net and create space, must be able to skate and skate well. Even the old-school shutdown defenseman, who once merely had to take the body, must be able to skate and skate well in the new NHL. All of these changes to the overall NHL game necessarily make it less likely that NHL players would use performance-enhancing drugs--as the NHL players who once would have most benefited from such drugs are less and less likely to find a place in the new NHL.

On the whole, like IHPB, the NHLPA, the NHL, and unlike Dick Pound, I don't believe that performance-enhancing drugs are a major problem in the NHL or are ever likely to become a major problem in the NHL. Most hockey players are like IHBP in that they work out devotedly, use old-fashioned therapeutic devices such as Advil, ice, and Icy-Hots when healing their sore bodies, and watch their diets in order to ensure they maintain weight and muscle mass. Like IHPB, most professional hockey players are in great shape, but like IHPB, many also have body builds, when seen off the ice, that make it obvious, "There is no way he is juicing!" While professional hockey players, unlike still-amateur IHPB, have access to fancier therapeutic devices such as cortisone shots, etc., the fact of the matter remains that most hockey players do not need to use performance-enhancing drugs. Goaltenders don't need steroids, and neither, really, do hockey stars who eat right, train right, and have access to legal devices that help to aid recovery time.

To be frank and honest, I think it's more likely the NHL would have a problem with too many alcohol abusers than with too many player using performance enhancing drugs. (Caveat: As previously noted, so long as drinking doesn't negatively impact a player's on ice performance and so long as players never get behind the wheel of a car while impaired, I accept that hockey players can drink with the best of them.) E.g., alcohol abuse will become the NHL's main drug problem before steroids ever do, and reckless on-ice and off-ice behavior is probably of more danger than either steroids or alcohol. Whether Dick Pound likes it or not, that's the nature of the sport of ice hockey, as seen from those who, unlike Dick Pound, have some knowledge of the sport that is ice hockey.

Split Statistics and Conclusions

James Mirtle had a fascinating post up recently. Take a gander here and and here. Now onto the fun of analyzing these statistics, drawing conclusions about said statistics, and making predictions--coupled with warnings--about those predictions.


THE PITTSBURGH DEFENSEMEN ON THE SCORING LEADER LIST

Sergei Gonchar

Pre-All Star Game: 8th in scoring among d-men with a minus 8 plus/minus.

Post All Star Game: 1st in scoring among d-man with a minus 1 plus-minus

Analysis/Conclusions: Historically a slow starter, if only Gonchar's statistics are analyzed, his offensive production increased, as is typical for him, in the second half of the season. It should also be noted that as Gonchar's offensive production improved, and as his plus minus rose (still negative, however), so, too, was he playing for a team that was winning far, far more often than it lost. On a much improved team, Gonchar had better statistics.

Predictions: Expect Gonchar to be Gonchar. He will produce offensively while making you wish the Penguins had other defensemen who could play defense in such a way that Gonchar's average defense is not a liability. Gonchar is not in the same league as the elite defensemen in the league. He is primarily a power play quarterback who is adequate defensively when not asked to go out of his element and play a shutdown defensive role. Unfortunately, due to Pittsburgh's lack of shutdown defensemen, Gonchar is often forced into a role (e.g. killing penalties, number 1 minutes) that doesn't maximize the strength he would obviously have on a team where other defensemen could be relied upon to play shutdown defense.

Warnings: Gonchar is and always has been a slow starter, although last year's slow start was nowhere close to the slow start of 2005-06. Expect Gonchar to improve his offensive output to mirror the production of the team that surrounds him, and expect that output to improve later in the season. Also, expect Gonchar to be Gonchar: an elite power play quarterback but not, unfortunately, an elite two way defenseman who could realistically contend for the Norris Trophy.



Ryan Whitney

Pre-All Star Game: 15th in d-man scoring, plus 3

Post-All Star Game: 2nd in d-man scoring, plus 6

Analysis/Conclusions: Like Gonchar, Whitney improved his play as the season progressed. Like Gonchar, Whitney's improved play no doubt reflected the improvement of his entire team. Unlike Gonchar, however, Whitney was consistently a plus player despite seeing many of his minutes come on the power play. While it's probably not wise to leap to conclusions based on 1 full season's worth of statistics, Whitney's plus/minus would state that he is already better defensively than Gonchar. And given Whitney's size and how he did, on at least one occasion this past season, use that size to clear someone from the front of the net (much to the shock of a certain segment of the Pittsburgh fan base), Whitney may yet have the potential to evolve into an almost-elite two way defenseman, probably a notch below the elite talents of those like Lidstrom, Pronger, et. al, but more than just a mere power play specialist. Also, Whitney's statistics and age prompt a question: Is he a "slow starer," a la Gonchar, or was he just a young defenseman whose play naturally improvement as he gained more NHL playing experience?

Predictions: Expect Whitney still, on occasion, to have momentary lapses that remind you he's on the youthful end of that $24 million extension he signed summer. Expect those lapses to be far less frequent than they were in the 2006-07 season. Expect Whitney to play to his offensive strengths, and expect those offensive strengths to tower over occasional defensive miscues. If the rest of the Pittsburgh team performs at a first-place-in-Atlantic level, expect Whitney to be a plus player, an offensive stalwart, and a player whose two way skills will begin to evolve--and get noticed around the NHL.

Warnings: Whitney had wrist surgery this summer. While he should be fully healed by training camp, it might not be realistic to expect Whitney to start out 2007-08 the way he ended 2007. Then again, considering Whitney was racking up all those points when Pittsburgh personnel knew full well that his wrist wasn't fully healthy (like Crosby's deal with the broken foot, I suspect Whitney was told that playing with the injured wrist wouldn't risk more permanent damage), it's fun to imagine what a fully healthy Whitney might do. Bottom line, however, is this: Surrounded by a dynamic cast of players doing their scoring thing, Whitney is on the verge of being an All-Star offensive defenseman. In order for that cast of offensive stars to do their thing with aplomb, Whitney's outlet passes have to get them the puck



THE DYNAMIC DUO

Evgeni Malkin

Pre-All Star Game: 52 points, plus 4, 17th in overall scoring

Post-All Star Game: 33 points, out of top 20 in overall scoring, minus two

Analysis/Conclusions: At some point, something caught up to Malkin. Perhaps it was conditioning. Perhaps it was exhaustion. Perhaps (going far to into psycho-analysis) it was the fact that when other players stepped up (e.g. scoring began to be more evenly spread throughout the roster), Malkin didn't score as frequently as he initially had. I tend to side with conditioning having caught up to Malkin, though I do wonder if he--while clearly capable of being a dynamic superstar--might be one of those superstars who does, occasionally, need to be reminded that yes, indeed, he is a superstar and is expected to score as a superstar should.

Predictions: Expect Malkin's output to match his conditioning and preparation level. Secondarily, expect Malkin's output to coincide with his mental knowledge/physical acknowledgment of the fact that he has superstar talent and should score as a superstar should. More than anything else, Malkin probably needs strength and conditioning to get accustomed to the long, physical grind of the NHL season. I tend to believe that Malkin's scoring will take care of itself so long as he is in prime physical condition. However, Malkin must never "sit back" merely because the Penguins are Sidney Crosby's team. Pittsburgh fans who remember the 95-96 season remember how fun it was to watch two teammates compete for a scoring title--and Malkin must know that, soon enough, he will be expected to rank among the NHL scoring leaders and yes, to challenge Crosby for the scoring title.

Warning: Various Russian newspapers have spoken of the adventures young Mr. Malkin has had this summer. Since I took French in school, not Russian, I don't spend as much time scouring the Russian news media as I do the French-Canadian media. I also tend to distrust Russian tabloids a little more than I distrust, for example, major Quebec newspapers. That being said, however, if Malkin fails to be properly conditioned--whether at the start, middle, or end of the season--look out, Loretta, except in a negative way. More so than his head being screwed on straight, Malkin must be properly conditioned in order to perform well. (Though, of course, comes the caveat that if Malkin's head is screwed on straight, he will know the importance of proper conditioning.)


Sidney Crosby

Pre All-Star Game: 72 points, plus 13, 1st in overall scoring

Post All-Star Game: 48 points, minus 3, 2nd in overall scoring

Analysis/Conclusions: Crosby started the season incredibly well. He also took advantage of the Flyers on a few occasions to pad his beautiful scoring totals. (Many other elite players did the same thing against vastly inferior opponents but weren't able to score as many points as was Crosby. Crosby scoring many points against Philadelphia is praise for doing what the best player in the world should do rather than a dismissal of his feats). After the All-Star game, as checking tightened and teams were eager to make the playoffs, Crosby didn't score as frequently as he had prior to the All-Star game. Perhaps carrying Recchi and Malone on his wings for most of that time didn't exactly help his second-half scoring output (which was still 2nd overall in the entire league). Basically, however, I attribute Crosby scoring more in the first half than the second half to two basic things: 1.) Crosby didn't have the same caliber of linemates as did other superstars (take a gander at those ranked near him in scoring and I'm fairly certain there was at least 1 very good to great player flanking those other scoring leaders). 2.) Crosby played on a broken foot late in the season--and whether fans like it or not, injuries don't improve the productivity of most players, even once-in-a-generation superstars.

Predictions: If Crosby stays healthy throughout the season, even without a very good linemate, he should still likely win the scoring title (especially given his power play playmates). If Crosby stays healthy and gets one very good line mate, expect him to start gunning for 100 assists. If Crosby should suffer an unfortunate injury (e.g. one that lingers for three weeks or a month), one that he can't consistently play through, expect some of those other elite players to pass him in the NHL scoring race, especially since those players, more than likely, will be playing alongside very good players.

Warnings: Crosby is the best player in the league, but the NHL still boasts other elite players. Certain elite, far more experienced players, should rightfully be expected to challenge Crosby for the scoring title. If Crosby stays healthy and has one very good linemate, look out, Loretta, in a positively phenomenal way. If Crosby suffers an injury that lasts longer than three to four weeks, expect him to have more difficulty capturing individual honors--and expect his team, predicted by so be a "lock" for the playoffs, to find themselves closer to the outside of the playoff race than perched on top of the Eastern Conference standings.

So, wow--that was some fun statistical analysis. What do these statistics, pre and post All Star Game, reveal to you in terms of conclusions, predictions, and warnings? Why?

*Afterthought: Both Crosby and Malkin were minus players after the All-Star break in spite of the Penguins 14-0-2 unbeaten streak coming after the All-Star game. Thoughts as to why this was the case? (I also tend to the side that says, in this case, plus/minus for these two was moot point so long as the team was winning games and accumulating two points in the standings for each game played, but nevertheless, the statistic strikes me as curious.)*

French-Canadian Newspapers are Awesome


Granted, that headline might be a tad misleading. And it's not just French-Canadian newspapers that are wonderful. So, too, is the magic of google translation. Look at how I can keep informed as to what my Penguins are doing this summer:

Penguins, a question of chemistry


They were ten players of Penguins de Pittsburgh to have accepted the invitation of the trainer Michel Therrien to the Club of golf the Mirage, Thursday. Last summer, the day had especially gathered Québécois players. For this second edition, of the guy as Ryan Malone were added to the group with the suggestion of the captain Sidney Crosby.

Sidney Crosby believes that Penguins must maintain the chemistry which reigns within the team.

“For us, it is important, affirms Therrien. One really believes that there is a beautiful chemistry within our formation and this kind of chemistry, it should also be maintained.”

“It is a beautiful occasion to see the guy and to have pleasure. It is also important to meet the new players. It can only be good for the team," believes Crosby.

“That will give me the chance to meet the players before going to the camp and to be more at ease. That will make good,"is delighted Angelo Esposito, the choice of round first of the team last June.

The Penguins young people developed a team spirit which makes the desire of several clubs of the national League. Marc-Andre Fleury seemed particularly glad to find Dany Sabourin, which returns to Pittsburgh after one season to Vancouver.

“It was my choice to return with Penguins," launches Sabourin. "It was to play more matches and I will have some more than the year spent while playing here. Therefore, I crossed another stage in my career.”

Last year, Pittsburgh knew one season beyond all waitings. For 2007-08, Sidney Crosby with the Stanley cut in his test card.

“The good athletes will force the note to reach this kind of objective," notes Therrien."On the other hand, the first priority is to make the eliminatory series, which would be already a beautiful achievement. It is necessary to be realistic, we have a young formation, but we are more in confidence for camp of drive which approaches than on similar date last year. Confidence is the principal difference between this year and last year.”

“It is sure that environment will be different this year because we will have the pressure to gain and to finish first. It is a pleasant pressure," believes Maxime Talbot.

At its second season in the NHL, Crosby was dominating. One can even say that it eclipsed its rival Alexander Ovechkin.

“The comparisons will be always there between me and the other players. I must only remain concentrated on my play and to contribute to successes of my tea," was satisfied to say the principal interested one.

Crosby in is already with its second stay in less than one week in Quebec. The 87 also envisages to go to Rimouski by the end of the summer.

Thanks to the magic of google translation and the Internet and of course the French Canadian media that actually reports on hockey (or at the very least the rather Quebecois flavor of the Pittburgh team) throughout the summer, we learn some very interesting things from this article.

EDIT: To read a clean translation (not google) and to see video, too, check out the August 8th entry at the Sidney Crosby Show.

To summarize:

1.) The Penguins had good chemistry last season and want to maintain that chemistry.

Example: Look, even a few of the non French-Canadian players came to Therrien's golf event! The children clearly enjoy each other's company, which hopefully continues to bode well for team chemistry.

Opinion: Good chemistry generally lasts as long as a team wins. Losing too often tends to mar chemistry, though good chemistry, hopefully, can prevent a couple of losses from turning into a huge tailspin of a lengthy losing streak.



2.) Marc-Andre Fleury is happy to have Dany Sabourin as his back-up, and Sabourin is happy to be in Pittsburgh. (Incidentally, while googling, I discovered the fact that Jocelyn Thibeault was sad to leave to Pittsburgh.)

Opinion: The only thing I want Fleury and Sabourin to do is stop the puck enough to win games. Provided they do their jobs of stopping the puck well enough to win games, I'll be delighted they're both happy to be in Pittsburgh. If they don't do their jobs well enough to win games, I, along with many others whose opinion actually matters (snark: unlike a blogger's), will be far less than delighted, and I'm guessing, Fleury and Sabourin will be unhappy rather than happy.


3.) In addition to being concerned about team chemistry, Therrien apparently believes his team will be more confident next year.

Opinion: I agree with Therrien that is good to be realistic about having a young team. Confidence, while a nice thing to have, doesn't mean hogwash until confidence is backed up with on-ice performance, a fact with which Therrien and his players appear to concur.

4.) The Penguins, first and foremost, must make the playoffs next season (this is now an expectation). Beyond that, however, Talbot's comment is interesting. Talbot speaks of the "pleasant" pressure of being expected to "finish first" (which I presume to mean first place in the division rather than first place in the overall standings, although one never knows with these precocious Penguins).

Opinion: I'm glad Talbot speaks of the pressure of increased expectations as "pleasant" which is a comfort to me. But I wonder how "pleasant" those raised external and internal expectations will become during the times--and they will occur, although we don't know how often yet--when the team fails to meet those increased expectations.

Opinion Two: It's excellent and a realistic reminder to ensure that your first goal remains to make the playoffs. It's a step of progress when you can acknowledge that, in addition to obviously meeting the first goal, that you want to finish first in your division. When it comes to goal-setting, at the moment, I approve.


5.) While I still doubt Angelo Esposito makes the roster this season, he did get to hang out with those who may some day be his teammates.

Opinion: I'll leave it to others to psychoanalyze Pittsburgh's most recent first round draft pick, but suffice to say I think it is beneficial for young players to come to a team that has shown a recent history of placing young players in situations that are most conducive for their on-ice success.

And, of course, I could end my analysis with this article by analyzing Crosby's statement, but the fact of the matter is, whether speaking English or French, Crosby says the same thing in the same exact way. And that statement, while never rarely said in these exact words, is this: "I want to the best I can possibly be, and I want my team to be the best." And for a player who just turned twenty years old, that's a phenomenal attitude, and one for which Pittsburgh fans must never fail to be grateful.

As for me, well, remind me to read the French hockey media more often--it's tons of fun, and I'm guessing, in season, it could be just as fun to get the Quebecois perspective on the Penguins. For the remainder of summer, however, just expect me to link to articles such as this.
To whet your reading appetite, assistant coach Andre Savard's comments help to explain why I desire for Pittsburgh prospects to be in the organization's care full time sooner rather than later (and on a side note, it truly is wonderful to be able to make that previous statement).

For today, however, I will close with how I feel about the French hockey media in the midst of a far too lengthy offseason:

Je vous adore. Merci de l'information et des entrevues sur les joueurs d'hockey pendant les vacances d'été.

An Early August Exercise in Meaningless Conjecture

Okay, it's late summer, and I'm incredibly bored. Ridiculous rumors about Peter Forsberg being interested in becoming a Penguins aside, I've been taking some time this summer to ponder something perhaps far more ridiculous on my own.

So, deep breath, and here goes. Excluding salary concerns, chemistry concerns, and yes, even physical and mental health concerns, along with discarding any realism about what it would take in terms of assets to acquire such a player, which current NHL player would you add to the roster of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the hopes of transforming the team into "odds on favorite to capture the Cup this season?"

Since I am not considering salary, chemistry, health, and as I have likewise discarded consideration of what the Penguins would have to give up in order to obtain this one player who would put the team over the top, two blueliners come immediately to mind. If you guessed that both rearguards manned the blue line for the Anaheim Ducks last season, you get a gold star. (Snark.)

For me, adding either Scott Niedermayer or Chris Pronger to the roster of the Pittsburgh Penguins transforms the Penguins from a good to very good team to a team on the cusp of greatness. Pronger and Niedermayer bring different styles to defense, but both are defensemen capable of playing shut down minutes in addition to playing key special teams roles. Pronger, his suspensions included, would bring a nasty edge to a defense corps that for the most part lacks that harsh edge. Since I'm not considering such things as injury history, chemistry, or anything else besides skill set, really, if there's one player whose skill set I'd want to add to the Penguins in the hopes of transforming the team into Cup favorites, I want Chris Pronger. I want his ability to cover for the mistakes of young defensemen, and I want his mean streak.

I imagine that other Pittsburgh fans could reasonably decide to want players such as N. Lidstrom, S. Niedermayer, or even young D. Phaneuf in Calgary or perhaps two or three other young rearguards in the league. I'd imagine that Pittsburgh fans could see their young team catapulting from good to great with the addition of a phenomenal two-way, Norris Trophy winning defenseman. Considering the caveat of turning the Pens into a Cup favorite this season in answering this hypothetical question, I don't care about potential for what Phaneuf or Shea Weber or Jay Bouwmeester will one day be. I only care about which player, this season, makes the instantaneous impact of turning the Pens into a team that no one would want to face. For me, that player, by a hair or two over others, is Chris Pronger.

Now, for the first set of commentary, which player is your answer to my hypothetical question of "excluding salary concerns, chemistry concerns, and yes, even physical and mental health concerns, along with discarding any realism about what it would take in terms of assets to acquire such a player, which current NHL player would you add to the roster of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the hopes of transforming the team into "odds on favorite to capture the Cup this season?"


Even with adding a Norris Trophy defenseman, it should probably be noted that the Pens would be best advised to acquire a legitimate first line winger. Again , applying the hypothetical question of no concern for salary, physical/mental health, chemistry, or assets it would take to acquire such a player, which top-line wing would you add to the Pittsburgh roster in the hopes of transforming the team into a Cup winner this season? For me, like it or not, the answer comes fast and furious: Jaromir Jagr. He's a natural wing, a wing who can score goals in addition set up goals, and setting aside three years of his career, he's one of the the greatest players in NHL history. Fans who remember his histrionics should know that Jagr comes to play when the games matter the most: he scores the game-winning goals (see: 1992 playoffs, 1999 playoffs). If we're talking pure skill set for a winger, I'd take Jagr as my top line right wing if I want to win the Cup this season.

Answering objections that are sure to come, I realize that other wingers, e.g. Martin St. Louis and Dany Heatley, could be considered. St. Louis, unlike Heatley, at least has played for a Cup-winning team, and if I actually took "chemistry" into consideration, St. Louis would be a better fit. But neither Heatley--his current lack of Cup winning experience stands against him--nor St. Louis--brings the same "carry two men on my back and still score" ability of a power forward that Jaromir Jagr, at his current age and state, still possesses.

So, in sum, if I somehow had the magical ability just to be handed one player as a gift, I'd pick Chris Pronger. Answering the objections of Penguins fans who are all too aware of their team's need for scoring wings and given one more free gift, I'd choose the man who still holds the scoring records for most points by a NHL right wing. What about you? Which current NHL players, most likely a defenseman and a winger, would you pick, considering ONLY playing prowess, to transform the Penguins from a very good team to more-than-likely Cup champion this season?

And, of course, I must conclude with the note that all of this is a meaningless exercise. The price to acquire assets such as experienced future Hall of Fame players is far too high for a team such as Pittsburgh to be willing or wise to pay. The price even to acquire players on the verge of unrestricted free agency (a la Dany Heatley) is likewise too much to pay. Still, in the long line of ridiculous, inane, never-will-come-to-actual-fruition summertime thoughts, I still desire to hear answers to my hypothetical question.

After all, there will be enough time for the realism of shortcomings/weaknesses (e.g. lack of legitimate shut down defenseman, the apparent lack of a world class sniper on the wing) when the 2007-08 season is in full swing. For this summertime moment, have away at this meaningless exercise in conjecture. Please.