Split Statistics and Conclusions

James Mirtle had a fascinating post up recently. Take a gander here and and here. Now onto the fun of analyzing these statistics, drawing conclusions about said statistics, and making predictions--coupled with warnings--about those predictions.


THE PITTSBURGH DEFENSEMEN ON THE SCORING LEADER LIST

Sergei Gonchar

Pre-All Star Game: 8th in scoring among d-men with a minus 8 plus/minus.

Post All Star Game: 1st in scoring among d-man with a minus 1 plus-minus

Analysis/Conclusions: Historically a slow starter, if only Gonchar's statistics are analyzed, his offensive production increased, as is typical for him, in the second half of the season. It should also be noted that as Gonchar's offensive production improved, and as his plus minus rose (still negative, however), so, too, was he playing for a team that was winning far, far more often than it lost. On a much improved team, Gonchar had better statistics.

Predictions: Expect Gonchar to be Gonchar. He will produce offensively while making you wish the Penguins had other defensemen who could play defense in such a way that Gonchar's average defense is not a liability. Gonchar is not in the same league as the elite defensemen in the league. He is primarily a power play quarterback who is adequate defensively when not asked to go out of his element and play a shutdown defensive role. Unfortunately, due to Pittsburgh's lack of shutdown defensemen, Gonchar is often forced into a role (e.g. killing penalties, number 1 minutes) that doesn't maximize the strength he would obviously have on a team where other defensemen could be relied upon to play shutdown defense.

Warnings: Gonchar is and always has been a slow starter, although last year's slow start was nowhere close to the slow start of 2005-06. Expect Gonchar to improve his offensive output to mirror the production of the team that surrounds him, and expect that output to improve later in the season. Also, expect Gonchar to be Gonchar: an elite power play quarterback but not, unfortunately, an elite two way defenseman who could realistically contend for the Norris Trophy.



Ryan Whitney

Pre-All Star Game: 15th in d-man scoring, plus 3

Post-All Star Game: 2nd in d-man scoring, plus 6

Analysis/Conclusions: Like Gonchar, Whitney improved his play as the season progressed. Like Gonchar, Whitney's improved play no doubt reflected the improvement of his entire team. Unlike Gonchar, however, Whitney was consistently a plus player despite seeing many of his minutes come on the power play. While it's probably not wise to leap to conclusions based on 1 full season's worth of statistics, Whitney's plus/minus would state that he is already better defensively than Gonchar. And given Whitney's size and how he did, on at least one occasion this past season, use that size to clear someone from the front of the net (much to the shock of a certain segment of the Pittsburgh fan base), Whitney may yet have the potential to evolve into an almost-elite two way defenseman, probably a notch below the elite talents of those like Lidstrom, Pronger, et. al, but more than just a mere power play specialist. Also, Whitney's statistics and age prompt a question: Is he a "slow starer," a la Gonchar, or was he just a young defenseman whose play naturally improvement as he gained more NHL playing experience?

Predictions: Expect Whitney still, on occasion, to have momentary lapses that remind you he's on the youthful end of that $24 million extension he signed summer. Expect those lapses to be far less frequent than they were in the 2006-07 season. Expect Whitney to play to his offensive strengths, and expect those offensive strengths to tower over occasional defensive miscues. If the rest of the Pittsburgh team performs at a first-place-in-Atlantic level, expect Whitney to be a plus player, an offensive stalwart, and a player whose two way skills will begin to evolve--and get noticed around the NHL.

Warnings: Whitney had wrist surgery this summer. While he should be fully healed by training camp, it might not be realistic to expect Whitney to start out 2007-08 the way he ended 2007. Then again, considering Whitney was racking up all those points when Pittsburgh personnel knew full well that his wrist wasn't fully healthy (like Crosby's deal with the broken foot, I suspect Whitney was told that playing with the injured wrist wouldn't risk more permanent damage), it's fun to imagine what a fully healthy Whitney might do. Bottom line, however, is this: Surrounded by a dynamic cast of players doing their scoring thing, Whitney is on the verge of being an All-Star offensive defenseman. In order for that cast of offensive stars to do their thing with aplomb, Whitney's outlet passes have to get them the puck



THE DYNAMIC DUO

Evgeni Malkin

Pre-All Star Game: 52 points, plus 4, 17th in overall scoring

Post-All Star Game: 33 points, out of top 20 in overall scoring, minus two

Analysis/Conclusions: At some point, something caught up to Malkin. Perhaps it was conditioning. Perhaps it was exhaustion. Perhaps (going far to into psycho-analysis) it was the fact that when other players stepped up (e.g. scoring began to be more evenly spread throughout the roster), Malkin didn't score as frequently as he initially had. I tend to side with conditioning having caught up to Malkin, though I do wonder if he--while clearly capable of being a dynamic superstar--might be one of those superstars who does, occasionally, need to be reminded that yes, indeed, he is a superstar and is expected to score as a superstar should.

Predictions: Expect Malkin's output to match his conditioning and preparation level. Secondarily, expect Malkin's output to coincide with his mental knowledge/physical acknowledgment of the fact that he has superstar talent and should score as a superstar should. More than anything else, Malkin probably needs strength and conditioning to get accustomed to the long, physical grind of the NHL season. I tend to believe that Malkin's scoring will take care of itself so long as he is in prime physical condition. However, Malkin must never "sit back" merely because the Penguins are Sidney Crosby's team. Pittsburgh fans who remember the 95-96 season remember how fun it was to watch two teammates compete for a scoring title--and Malkin must know that, soon enough, he will be expected to rank among the NHL scoring leaders and yes, to challenge Crosby for the scoring title.

Warning: Various Russian newspapers have spoken of the adventures young Mr. Malkin has had this summer. Since I took French in school, not Russian, I don't spend as much time scouring the Russian news media as I do the French-Canadian media. I also tend to distrust Russian tabloids a little more than I distrust, for example, major Quebec newspapers. That being said, however, if Malkin fails to be properly conditioned--whether at the start, middle, or end of the season--look out, Loretta, except in a negative way. More so than his head being screwed on straight, Malkin must be properly conditioned in order to perform well. (Though, of course, comes the caveat that if Malkin's head is screwed on straight, he will know the importance of proper conditioning.)


Sidney Crosby

Pre All-Star Game: 72 points, plus 13, 1st in overall scoring

Post All-Star Game: 48 points, minus 3, 2nd in overall scoring

Analysis/Conclusions: Crosby started the season incredibly well. He also took advantage of the Flyers on a few occasions to pad his beautiful scoring totals. (Many other elite players did the same thing against vastly inferior opponents but weren't able to score as many points as was Crosby. Crosby scoring many points against Philadelphia is praise for doing what the best player in the world should do rather than a dismissal of his feats). After the All-Star game, as checking tightened and teams were eager to make the playoffs, Crosby didn't score as frequently as he had prior to the All-Star game. Perhaps carrying Recchi and Malone on his wings for most of that time didn't exactly help his second-half scoring output (which was still 2nd overall in the entire league). Basically, however, I attribute Crosby scoring more in the first half than the second half to two basic things: 1.) Crosby didn't have the same caliber of linemates as did other superstars (take a gander at those ranked near him in scoring and I'm fairly certain there was at least 1 very good to great player flanking those other scoring leaders). 2.) Crosby played on a broken foot late in the season--and whether fans like it or not, injuries don't improve the productivity of most players, even once-in-a-generation superstars.

Predictions: If Crosby stays healthy throughout the season, even without a very good linemate, he should still likely win the scoring title (especially given his power play playmates). If Crosby stays healthy and gets one very good line mate, expect him to start gunning for 100 assists. If Crosby should suffer an unfortunate injury (e.g. one that lingers for three weeks or a month), one that he can't consistently play through, expect some of those other elite players to pass him in the NHL scoring race, especially since those players, more than likely, will be playing alongside very good players.

Warnings: Crosby is the best player in the league, but the NHL still boasts other elite players. Certain elite, far more experienced players, should rightfully be expected to challenge Crosby for the scoring title. If Crosby stays healthy and has one very good linemate, look out, Loretta, in a positively phenomenal way. If Crosby suffers an injury that lasts longer than three to four weeks, expect him to have more difficulty capturing individual honors--and expect his team, predicted by so be a "lock" for the playoffs, to find themselves closer to the outside of the playoff race than perched on top of the Eastern Conference standings.

So, wow--that was some fun statistical analysis. What do these statistics, pre and post All Star Game, reveal to you in terms of conclusions, predictions, and warnings? Why?

*Afterthought: Both Crosby and Malkin were minus players after the All-Star break in spite of the Penguins 14-0-2 unbeaten streak coming after the All-Star game. Thoughts as to why this was the case? (I also tend to the side that says, in this case, plus/minus for these two was moot point so long as the team was winning games and accumulating two points in the standings for each game played, but nevertheless, the statistic strikes me as curious.)*