Predictions, Prescience, Genius, and Idiocy

My copy of Sports Illustrated arrived this week. This week featured the NHL preview issue. Among other things, SI predicted that the Anaheim Ducks, led by Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, would win the Stanley Cup over the Buffalo Sabres. SI also featured a NHL general manager assuring fans that neither Crosby nor Ovechkin would suffer the dreaded sophomore slump.

I know this is a blog. I know people expect blogs to give predictions, etc, for how the season will go. Who will win this division, who will make the playoffs, who win the Cup, and list continues. Here’s the thing. Living where I live, I haven’t had the chance to see preseason hockey yet—but even if I had, I’m not into making predictions the way that SI does.

It’s true. I could look like a genius with amazing gifts of prescience if I tell you that there’s no way the Rangers do what they did last year but that the Ducks will excel. I could also look like a complete idiot if I tell you that the Rangers can’t do what they did last year and Jaromir Jagr somehow manages to win another scoring championship while spearheading a New York playoff drive.

Here’s the thing, and granted, this is "my" thing. I can’t make preseason predictions. Ask me a quarter of the way through the season, and then I might be prepared to tell you what I’ve seen—based on actual NHL games that have been played. Until that point of the season, however, please don’t bug me about who’s making the playoffs, winning the division, winning the scoring title, winning the Cup. I don’t write for magazines like SI and THN and get paid big pucks (well, get paid anything, as I do this for fun and for free) to make predictions based on nothing.

Until games that count start being played, let’s stop with the predictions. Let’s see if the Ducks actually have the offense to complement Pronger and Niedermayer, and let’s make sure Pronger and Niedermayer actually complement each other in the correct way on the ice. Let’s see if Jaromir Jagr’s shoulder has healed to the point that he is convinced his shoulder isn’t a problem when it comes time to playing the games. Let’s see real games that matter be played before we determine who will make the playoffs, who will win awards, and who will the Cup.

Although—seriously, this isn’t in jest—provided no injuries befall them, I do agree with the NHL GM who scoffed at the idea that either Crosby or Ovechkin would suffer a sophomore slump. Based on each player’s performance last season, I merely wonder how much better each player will be this season?

The upcoming NHL season should certainly be fun to watch, fun to find out which players will improve and discover which teams have the depth to go the distance—but we only begin to discover those things when the teams start playing games that count in the standings.