Oh, anyhow

After all that fussing about the pointlessness of making predictions, well, guess what I think I’m—sort of, anyhow—about to do as it pertains to my Pittsburgh Penguins?

Looking at the team’s current roster, it strikes me that the roster’s major parts aren’t that different from the major parts of the team that won the rights to the #2 overall pick in the NHL draft last spring. While Ray Shero appears to have done a good job in bringing in players like Dominic Moore, etc, the Penguins are still relying on Sidney Crosby, Mark Recchi, John Leclair, and Ryan Malone to provide much of their scoring. The Penguins will still be relying on Sergei Gonchar to be their number one defenseman. Unless Recchi, Leclair, and Gonchar—all veterans—put up way better numbers than last year, this Penguins team is going nowhere fast. The complimentary role players Shero has acquired will not make a dent if the Penguins do not get reliable scoring from their wingers, a defense that resembles an NHL defense, and NHL caliber goaltending every night.

I can hear the protests about why the Penguins will be better. Crosby will be a year older and be better. Fine, agree. It’s not enough. The role players will help. Fine, agree. It’s not enough. We’ll have a real second line center in Malkin. Absolutely agree Malkin’s presence—once he is healthy enough to play—will make a huge difference.

Yet the ability of the Penguins to improve on last season’s record depends on large part on players who were members of the team last season. Can Brooks Orpik and Ryan Whitney develop into above-average NHL defensemen this season? Can Mark Recchi and John Leclair put the puck in the net on a regular basis? Can Ryan Malone find the net? Can players who lack speed find ways to compensate for their lack of speed? Can Marc-Andre Fleury or another one of our goaltenders consistently post a save percentage above .900 and give the Pens a chance to win most games?

Notice that none of my statements above are actually predictions. Perhaps I am trumpeting a warning—or a calling card, something to which we can look forward. Because if our wings can put the puck in the net, if our young defensemen can develop quickly, if our goaltender can stop the puck—well, that should be enough to be competitive against most teams most nights. Yet if those things don’t happen, well, didn’t we see that show last year? Bad goaltending, bad defense, slow wingers who couldn’t score? You saw the Sidney Crosby show, but you saw that show last season, too.

Just so you know—I’m not saying it necessarily goes one way or the other way. In fact, I might guess the best the team could hope for is a split somewhere down the middle. They’d still have hope.

But as for actual predictions—nope, don’t do that, but as a fan, I hope for the best—a great season for Crosby, a Calder Trophy for Malkin, a goaltender who can stop the puck consistently, defensemen who learn to play effective NHL defense, wingers who remember how to skate and score, a team that can play a system as necessary—

You look at all of those things and make your own prediction. What’s most likely to happen? What’s most likely not to happen?

Go ahead, be the prescient genius. I don’t mind at all—so long as some of those dreams become reality this season.