Until Rookie Camp & Training Camp....

This post will be about Angelo Esposito (and also about Kris Letang, Filewich, Stone, and Kennedy). This post will also be the last one about these particular subjects until rookie camp or training camp--and by that, I mean, until there are ACTUAL EVENTS to be written about and discussed.

At this point, however, it's summer, and prior to the start of free agency tomorrow*, fans are already wondering which of the team's prospects are ready for the jump to the Crosby Show next season. And given the recent rookie success of Crosby, Malkin, and Staal, fans are no doubt wondering: Can any of these prospects play a key role on the team next season? If so, how key of a role? Will they be able to step in and play mistake-free hockey? Will their development be helped or hindered by time with the big club, more seasoning in the AHL, or in Esposito's case, a return to junior?


KRIS LETANG

Let's look at the case of Kris Letang first (because, in my opinion, Letang is the easiest). Letang's already scored goals in the NHL. After being returned to his junior team, he destroyed the junior level competition. In between starring for his QMJHL junior team, Letang captained Canada's entry at the World Junior tournament to gold while being honored as one of the tournament's best defenseman. He's worked to improve his weaknesses (which he still admitted this week to being playing sound positional defense), and he was named the top defenseman in the Q this past season. If all accounts are to be believed, Letang learned from his time in the Show last season and allowed that to catapult him to the further development and improvement of his overall game.

All that said, I expect Letang to stick in the NHL next season (given general manager Ray Shero has already basically said as much), barring incredibly unforeseen circumstances. That being said, Letang is primarly an offensive defenseman. And young defenseman who are learning how to play defense in the NHL take longer to learn how to play defense than forwards usually do to play their positions. That's just how it is. Letang will need a responsible, reliable defensive parter to play with at even strength. And, in terms of easing him into his role, it's probably best, a not excessive amount of even strength minutes, no penalty killing, and the second team power play unit--that is, until Letang shows he is capable and prepared to handle more duties. (Say what one will of Therrien, but he eased Staal in last year, and while I wish he would've given Staal more responsiblity--e.g. time in front of the net on the power play--later in the year, I can't argue with giving a player more responsibilites as his play progresses.)

When it comes to Letang, Pittsburgh fans are best forewarned. He's a talented offensive defenseman. I believe he's the closest to NHL ready of all the Pens' prospects. But for young defensemen learning how to play NHL defense for the first time, there will be bumps in the road. There will be giveaways or out-of-position plays, and while those plays can hopefully be minimized, they will happen, at least occasionally. As long as Letang is proving to be more helpful than detrimental to the team's chances to win, I expect him to stick with the big club. And with Letang, at some point, that huge "upside" has to be allowed to develop in the Show--it's just that with most defenseman, the development comes in the Show.

Which basically boils down to: don't expect Letang to make the drastic difference that Crosby, Malkin, and Staal did in each of their rookie seasons. Letang will be making a difference provided he makes outlet passes well, settles into a role on a power play unit, and learns how to play consistently solid defense at even-strength throughout the 2007-08 season.

(And, of course, if Letang does make a drastic difference or is a Calder Trophy nominee, be pleasantly surprised rather than making the error of assuming he should be a Calder Trophy nominee and being sorely disappointed when he isn't.)


ANGELO ESPOSITO

Oh, good grief. What can be said about Angelo Esposito that hasn't been said? He was once a consensus first overall pick for his draft year. He fell to the Pens at 20th overall. There are reasons he fell. Depending on who you are talking to, Esposito is either the next coming of Daigle and a sure-fire bust or a player who is going to win next season's Calder Trophy winner playing on Crosby's wing. While my opinion will likely disappoint the opinionated extremists on both sides of the "boom or bust" Esposito debate, I think the truth is likely somewhere between the two extremes.

Positives about Esposito: He has skill, lots and lots of skill. He has speed, which one would think would (eventually) make him tailor-made for the new NHL. He can issue pinpoint passes, and he can score goals. He has shown he can play well with talented linemates (Alexander Radulov was his linemate for much of his rookie year in the QMJHL), and the Penguins have lots of gifted potential playmates for Esposito. Basically, the positive, which can't be stated strongly enough, especially when you pick at 20th overall as the Pens did, this kid has the talent, potentially, to become a star.

Negatives about Esposito: Oh, where does one begin? For whatever reason, Esposito has appeared to "tail off" at the end of seasons (at least if statistics are examined). This season, his second-half scoring slump dropped him from #1 overall to #8 overal in the rankings for North American draft-eligible skaters. His rookie season, he didn't score nearly as much in the playoffs as he had during the regular season (contrast to Jordan Staal, who scored 10 goals in 19 playoff games and whose first NHL playoff appearance showed that there was perhaps something to that junior performance). Whether Esposito's scoring slumps are a matter of a lack of strength and endurance not yet built up (something that can be fixed over time), it's still a matter of concern. And, obviously, of course, is the fact that Esposito's still skinny for his height (180 pounds, and six one). Esposito needs more muscle mass, particularly upper-body muscle mass. In order to play more successfully, whether in juniors or the NHL, Esposito will have to learn how to play through physical play and still create and finish plays when the checking gets harder, tighter, and tougher. Esposito also has an injury history that puts up a couple of red flags: he's had 2 concussions and rumors about a sore back.

Curiosities about Esposito (These "curiosities" cannot yet be labeled as positive or negative traits, necessarily, nor are they "proven." They're more "thinking aloud" based on various information): Esposito speaks three languages fluently. He once wanted to be a doctor, and he completed two years of high school in one year. Speaking in purely academic terms, the kid is obviously academically intelligent. That being said, many observers questioned Esposito's head. Hockey intelligence and academic intelligence are rarely equivalent, and while some hockey intelligence can be taught (this is the simple play to make here; this is appropriate positioning), some things, like hockey intuition, are much more difficult to teach. Other concerns about Esposito, interestingly enough, also involve his head, and would have been much more of a concern for a team that drafted him higher than did Pittsburgh. Given how Esposito responded to the pressure of his draft year (his scoring totals dipped), does the kid have what it takes to handle pressure situations? Coming to Pittsburgh, where he'll likely be counted on to be a supplementary "star" if he ever reaches that point rather than the focal point, how much does his response to his second junior season reflect character traits that will always follow him?

My Conundrum/Analysis: Without having seen Esposito play in rookie camp or training camp, I can't say my opinion is anything but conjecture at this point. Nevertheless, Esposito has not yet shown he can handle the physical rigors of playing in the NHL. He has not yet shown an otherworldly sixth sense for defense (there was a reason Jordan Staal got fawned over last year, and it had at least as much to do with precocious defensive play as it did with his last name) or even a consistent otherworldly offensive sense that would enable him to overcome his still not-yet-developed stature. In terms of pure physical strength, count me on the side of the skeptics that says Angelo Esposito needs at least another year playing in juniors to gain the strength to play against men.

That being said, however, I see Pittsburgh, rather than the Patrick Roy-coached Quebec Ramparts, as the ideal place for Esposito to develop into the player he is supposed to be. If you want to teach him how to play wing, have Yeo work with him the way he worked with Staal last year. If you want to teach him strength and conditioning and to add muscle, let him spend some time around Gary Roberts and professional strength and conditioning coaches. And, honestly speaking, I'd rather have Michel Therrien, who's proven his worth as a developmental coach, around Esposito than Roy. Roy has not yet proven he can develop and mold and teach young players. I'm not convinced Esposito, under Roy's tutelage, would gain any more "hockey sense" or learn how to play effectively on a wing. And granted, Roy's job is to win games for the Quebec Ramparts, not to teach Esposito every skill the Pens would want him to have. Still, a huge part of me screams that Esposito's development could happen, far more fruitfully, in Pittsburgh, under the watchful eye of those who have, thus far, shown themselves to be effective at developing young talent.

Still, my conundrum exists. Because Staal, just like Esposito, didn't play on the Canadian World Junior team his draft year. And yet Staal was physically ready to play in the NHL against men, and well, physically speaking, if Esposito's not ready to play against men, it's detrimental to his development to put him in a position for which he is not yet prepared.

Tentative Conclusion: When it comes to Esposito, strengths, weaknesses, question marks, etc., one thing seems to stand out: He's not a sure thing. That's why he fell to 20. Sure, maybe some future day we know he's a sure thing to one extreme or the other. But unlike Crosby, Malkin, and Staal (who showed this defensively in his 1st season), he's not a sure thing. And at pick twenty, I'd rather take the upside of a player who could someday be Crosby's regular wing rather than a relatively sure fire third line grinder or second pairing defenseman. But it's just with the players who aren't sure things, you have to be "careful" with them. So much depends on development, on things clicking, on--so many factors can inhibit those players who aren't sure things in stark contrast to the way that all those factors roll off the back of those players who are "sure things."

So what do I think? I think it's likely Esposito sticks around for most of training camp, and provided he's healthy and not totally incapable of dealing with the physical play, a few games. And then, unfortunately, I think it's back to juniors. I see Esposito as being a player who might take longer to get to the place where he can score goals on a line with Crosby--and that depends on staying healthy and continuing to gain strength. E.g., I have an easier time seeing a 20-year-old Esposito challenge for a Calder Trophy than an 18-year-old Esposito remaining with the Pens all season. But I still believe the sooner Esposito is in the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins organization full time, the better.

But, you know, at least it's one more potential thing to look forward to, and another promising prospect to watch with eager eyes.


The Baby Penguins-- Filewich, Stone, and Kennedy

All three of the above players, perhaps Filewich the most, have shown they can handle the rigors of the AHL. Unlike the Trifecta, these players wouldn't be expected to make an immediate, obvious impact in the form of loads of points or stunning artistry. They'd be expected to play roles, supporting and supplementary roles, well.

Yet as the Pens' recent graduates from the AHL to the NHL showed, there is a time period when a player is above the AHL and yet still not quite ready for a full time job in the NHL (particularly not a full-time job on a contending team). Players like Erik Christiansen and Max Talbot had times when they'd clearly surpassed the AHL, but weren't yet full-time NHL regulars. In short, these are the players who might not stick full time in the NHL at the season's start, but could definitely be regulars on the Pittsburgh roster by the season's end.


And in every case...

When it comes to Letang, Esposito, Filewich, Kennedy, and Stone, we've only seen Letang play in the NHL, and that was last season, before another year of seasoning in junior. We don't yet know how these players are going to perform in rookie camp, in NHL preseason games, or at training camp. We can certainly make great guesses as to how the players will perform, what they'll excel at or struggle with, but the point remains-- We don't know.

And until rookie camp comes, until training camp comes, and until the NHL preseason games start, how will we know if Esposito can handle physical play? How will we know how Filewich looks on the second or third line? How will we be able to measure how much Kris Letang's positional defense has improved?

Lest we think training camp or preseason games matter tremendously, let's not forget that Jordan Staal had some rough moments in camp and in preseason games. And while (repeat until you get through your heads, spoiled Pens fans) none of these players are Jordan Staal, it's worth remembering that one preseason game or a session or two at training camp are not anything to get too worked up about--either way. But until the time comes to have something tangible to get worked up about, how about not getting worked up at all?

And next year, with these kids, all of whom it's too soon to label as "wasted pick" or "wow, simply astounding," how about just seeing what happens and enjoying the fun, exciting, but roller coaster ride that often comes with the development of skilled young hockey players?

*It should be noted that, obviously, if the Pens should happen to sign a top 6 wing over the free agency period, that the chances of "giving one of the kids" a chance at wing is, quite obviously, reduced.*