All Right

Hockey Post

Since I have been without playoff competition for what feels like an eternity (how I will endure the summer I am not yet sure), it took a bit of warming up to get to the point of writing about hockey.

So the Finals start tomorrow night. I hate to make series predictions and then end up being proved wrong, so here are some random thoughts. And maybe, you know, a prediction or two will appear. Sometimes that can't be helped.

Marquee Match-up: If the Ducks' defense can shut down Ottawa's first line, I think Anaheim wins the series.
(Sigh, so I guess that's a prediction.)

However, there are so many caveats here:

Anaheim's PK versus Ottawa's PP: If Anaheim can't stay out of the penalty box, they're in trouble. I don't care if you do have 2 of the NHL's best defensemen on your roster; you'd need double that if you're going to be silly enough to give Ottawa's skilled forwards too much time on the man advantage. While it may not suit Anaheim's style, they'd be advised to limit the time they spend killing penalties, which means, in English, stay out of the penalty box, Anaheim!

Anaheim's depth versus Ottawa's depth: Anaheim has two marquee defensemen that Ottawa, in name value, doesn't have. Ottawa rolled four lines more regularly than Anaheim during the regular season. Whichever team gets the most from their "depth chart" also has a far better chance of winning the series.

Anaheim's scoring versus Ottawa's scoring: Anaheim has a line of kids that scores (and as a Pens fan, I love and appreciate kids) and Teemu Selanne, in addition to, of course, Pronger and Niedermayer. Ottawa has that Spezza-Alfredsson-Heatley line that I loathe (also, of course, as a Pens fan). Of course this sounds boneheadedly simple, but if a player who's depended on to score doesn't score, well, not so good for that team. Obviously.

So, what do I think? Honestly, I don't know. I've thought all playoffs long that the only team with a shot to stop the Senators was Anaheim, precisely due to the presence of Pronger and Niedermayer. If anyone could limit the chances of Ottawa's first line, it would have to be Anaheim's Norris Trophy winning defense. Yet having watched Ottawa roll through the best of the Eastern Conference (beating teams that were the best in the league from January through the end of the regular season), if Anaheim does pull it out, it won't be easy.

The bottom line, of course, is that all it really comes down to is which team is better and which team plays better.

Meaning, if Pronger and his ilk can shut down Ottawa's first line, then well, Ottawa better hope for terrific goaltending, mind-boggling coaching, and role players performing as more than mere role players.

Meaning, if the line that's had its' way the entire playoff season does its' thing with usual aplomb in the playoffs, there had best be fantastic coaching, otherwordly goaltending, and kids performing like wily veterans.

So I draw the same conclusion: Whoever wins the battle--whether Ottawa's first line or Anaheim's defense--takes the series.

However, given the caliber of Ottawa's first line and Anaheim's defense, if that match-up is a draw, then it comes down to everything else. Coaching, match-ups, role players, goaltending, and, of course, special teams play.

No predictions yet. I just want to see them play hockey tomorrow night.