Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Lack of Defensive Depth Can Kill

I have long maintained that the players I most fear the Penguins losing (even for just a few games at a time) are defensemen Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney. Before I'm accused of utter lunacy, allow me to explain why I believe a healthy Gonchar and Whitney are absolutely essential to any hopes the Pens may have of advancing in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

For obvious reasons, the Penguins should not want to see Crosby, Malkin, Staal, or Fleury injured for any length of time, either. However, despite the fact that Crosby is the best player in the game, despite the fact that Malkin is the rookie scoring leader, the Penguins actually have offensive depth. While the Buffalo Sabres have more 20 goal scorers than do the Pens, the Penguins have a plethora of 10 goal scorers. The team's gaudy winning percentage after the All-Star break had as much to do with the emergence of the team's role player (all those 10 goal scorers) as did the young stars performing as stars. The point is this: the Pens have offensive depth. If--understand I do not want or desire this to happen--one of the Pens' offensive talents needs to miss a game for some reason, the Penguins actually have the offensive depth to compensate short-term. Look no further than the games the Pens have won this season in spite of Crosby and/or Malkin being shut down.

Likewise, when it comes to goaltending, well, goaltending's a huge question mark as it is. However, until Marc Andre Fleury raises a Stanley Cup, that's how it's always going to be. Leaving aside Fleury's past history in championship and postseason competition (hint: it's not stellar), the fact of the matter is that Fleury will always have that question of "Can he win the big one?" dog him until he shows he can, indeed, win the big one. In any case, despite the Toronto debacle, Thibeault is an adequate backup goaltender. Needing to go to him for a game or two isn't the frightening proposition it would have been prior to this season.

After examining the team's offense and goaltending, now, unfortunately, I have to go to the Penguins' defensive corps. After Gonchar and Whitney, the Penguins do not have a flashy blueline. One might say Gonchar and Whitney provide enough offensive flash (I would concur with that sentiment). Like it or not, however, Gonchar and Whitney play close to thirty minutes a night because they play special teams and are trusted to log big time minutes. While I view Orpik as an X-factor (if he could ever evolve into a shutdown defenseman who could also dish out thundering checks, a la even a poor man's Ulf Samuelsson, that would be progress) and Eaton (when healthy) as hopefully competent, the Penguins' other blueliners are not top 4 NHL defensemen by any stretch of the imagination. And if Gonchar or Whitney has to sit out a game, suddenly a defenseman who has no business playing top 4 minutes is forced into a top 4 role. Needless to say, it's a bad situation when that happens.

At this point in the season, I no longer believe the Penguins' problem is depth. Despite the protestations of many fans, the Penguins have four lines composed of legitimate NHL players. (Now of course we could ask if those legitimate NHL players are all in the roles best suited to that particular player, but still and all, they're NHL players.) The Penguins have legitimate NHL players sitting in the press box as healthy scratches every evening. However, for all the Penguins' depth at forward, the team has the same problem it has had all year. The Penguins do not have defensive depth, and if something unfortunate happens to one of their best two defensemen (yes, that's Gonchar and Whitney), the Penguins don't have the ability to compensate for even a short-term injury to one of their top 2 defensemen. They just don't.

All in all, when it comes to the playoffs, Crosby, Malkin, Staal, and Fleury will all have to perform as stars should perform. Regardless of injury, if any of the Pens' quartet of young stars falls flat for any length of time, the team can't advance very far in the postseason. Period.
Likewise, the role players and those Cup-winning veterans have to do their part, too--whether it's a timely check or an unexpected goal or strong penalty-killing.

Understand that I am not saying that Gonchar or Whitney are more valuable than the four young players Whitney labeled as "our best players." What I am saying is that, given the flaws still existent on this Pens team, that the Penguins will not be able to go very far in the playoffs if they should suffer the misfortune of losing either Sergei Gonchar or Ryan Whitney for an extended period of time.

Granted, one would think the Pens wouldn't be able to afford to lose their other stars for an extended period of time, too. At this point, I'd concur with that sentiment. But I'd also have to say that I remember a Cup-winning Pens team that had to win the last three games of a series without the player later named as the winner of the Conn Smythe Trophy.

So perhaps the lack of depth in certain areas is one reason why the Pens just aren't quite ready to lift the Stanley Cup this year. But, let's just say that for the moment, if I have to lose a player for a game due to some weird freak injury (and hopefully nothing more), it had best not be Gonchar or Whitney, or it could be an uncomfortably short postseason appearance for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

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