Garth Snow Did What?

So in the midst of work and life, somehow I missed the news this week that Garth Snow signed Islanders goalie Rick DiPietro to a 15-year-deal worth 67.5 million dollars. Yes, I did a double-take too. A 15-year-deal? 67.5 million dollars in guaranteed money? Seriously now, this is how Snow wanted to begin his career as Islanders general manager?

When it comes to long-term contracts for millions of dollars, general managers have the potential to look like geniuses or buffoons (and buffoons is putting it mildly). To be perfectly frank, DiPietro, provided no injuries or other things come his way (a big if for any hockey player) looks like he can be a competent and even above-average NHL goaltender for many years. Yet the rational, logical side of my brain asks the question, What in the world was Snow thinking? Or not thinking? The rational, logical side of my brain concurs with my little brother’s sentiment that Garth Snow is clearly trying to become the new Craig Patrick of NHL GM’s. (Little brother, by the way, is not referring to Patrick when he was swinging deals for Ron Francis and Ulf Samuelsson, but the Patrick of more recent seasons who did such things as trade Markus Naslund for Alek Stojanov and Jaromir Jagr for, well, let’s not even go there.)

Because here’s the thing when it comes to long-term deals for any player. You are TIED to that long-term deal. You are TIED to that player. With a long-term deal, if your player suddenly doesn’t perform at his labeled price tag, well, guess what? There is no way you’re going to get anywhere near equal value in a trade because no other team is going to want to be a legitimate trading partner. You’re tying, bonding, binding, yourself to one specific player for an incredible length of time, and I don’t care if that player is one of the best in league history in the prime of his career (which DiPietro most definitely isn’t), it’s still incredibly risky.

Making risky moves can pay off in the NHL, and sometimes making risky deals pays dividends. If DiPietro ever performs to capabilities he’s shown at various times throughout his career and becomes one of those "money" goalies who can steal a playoff series for his team, then maybe his deal looks cheap and looks like a great idea. (However, the idea of the Islanders, under current ownership, actually qualifying for the playoffs, remains a laughable concept.) And I would not be surprised if there is a season or two, or even a period of multiple seasons throughout his career, when DiPietro’s contract ends up looking like a bargain. But the thing is, honestly, 15 years is such an incredibly long time. Sure, with the advent of modern conditioning, goalies can play stronger games for much longer, but still—what happens when you have a goalie, past his prime, in his late thirties, still pulling down a ridiculous salary? At the time when, let’s say, you’ve drafted another young goalie to replace the goalie who was your franchise goalie. What happens when the young, brash DiPietro is the wily veteran—a competent back-up but not a goalie you want to play 70 games a season anymore and you’re still paying him the same salary? Isn’t that contract going to look like a ridiculous albatross?

Although I hated the one economics class I was forced to take in college, I’ve heard of "inflation," and perhaps current Islanders GM Snow believes that inflation will ultimately make DiPietro cheap. Yet right now, in the present moment, I’ve got to come down on the side of little brother. Unless we’re talking about a once-in-a-generation player a la Gretzky or Lemieux, you don’t do 15-year-deals. Period. And even with those once-in-a-generation players, you’d best be careful. Because who knows what kind of injuries and health problems can occur? Seriously? And even with the deal’s apparent qualification for "retirement due to injury," one can have injuries that affect your level of play and yet still not be forced to retire due to such injuries.

Of course, I have to qualify everything. I won’t be surprised if there is a season or two or even a few more where Snow’s unorthodox signing will make me, and other bloggers and prognosticators like me, look incredibly foolish. Yet over the long-term? The long-haul that is 15 years?

Well, it looks like my previous post from this summer is holding up:Islanders rookie GM Garth Snow is definitely learning on the job.

Also—as an aside—a part of me wonders if Snow would have attempted to sign DiPietro to such a long-term deal if they hadn’t been good buddies as teammates? A part of me wonders if DiPietro would have signed such a long-term deal if he and Snow hadn’t been friends? Because, for something so unorthodox, well, other considerations had to factor into this decision, at least in my opinion.

Over the next fifteen years, we’ll have to wait and see if my opinion and those of little brother and so many others ultimately win out over those of rookie GM Snow.