Malkin is Coming?


Little brother’s comments hit the nail on the head. People are just starting to realize that the Russian mob running hockey over there might not be such a good thing, said little brother in his typically droll understatement. For what it’s worth, I wholeheartedly concur with this sentiment. However, what I want to focus on now is how Malkin coming over or not coming over can and will influence the Penguins’ fortunes in the 2006-07 season.

So let’s say somehow, Malkin gets out of his Russia, signs his entry-level deal with the Pens, and meets the expectation that Alexander Ovechkin set when he said he believes that Malkin will succeed him as winner of the Calder Trophy. Let’s presume that in Crosby and Malkin, the Penguins have two extremely young but still proficient first and second line centers. (And by the way, with any young rookie playing his first season in a different country, be aware that’s quite a presumption.) Let’s further assume that everything else goes right. Marc-Andre Fleury develops as a goaltender who makes the big save and steals a few games, the young defensemen develop, Sergei Gonchar plays like he did a few years ago, and the team gels. With the team gelling, the power play and penalty kill work at above-average levels. Even assuming all those things go right, the Penguins—with Crosby and Malkin at center, and all that other stuff clicking—are still, at best, a borderline playoff team.

Yet now let’s imagine that Malkin, for certain reasons out of the control of the NHL and the Penguins, remains in Russia this year. Let’s further assume that all those other things go right. The same good things happen: Fleury develops as a goaltender, defensemen learn to execute the NHL game successfully, and other players perform to their potential. Even with all those wonderful things happening, the 2006-07 Pens will still have a gaping hole on their depth chart because the team will not have a legitimate number two center. Without Malkin, even with every other thing gelling and clicking, the 2006-07 Penguins are out of the playoffs for another year.

Back in the land of reality, it’s probable to assume that all the good things the Penguins want to see happen in the 2006-07 season will not occur. Someone is going to get injured at some point in the year, and someone’s development is not going to be as linear or as quick as the team would expect or anticipate. Moreover, the Penguins core players remain—in terms of NHL service time and in terms of the good old-fashioned age measurement—young and thus inexperienced. Generally, it is simultaneously fun and frustrating to watch talented, young, and inexperienced players grow and develop into the players they have been projected to be. Realistically speaking, even if many good things happen, the Penguins cannot and should not count on "all good things" occurring in terms of the development of their young core.

Which is why Malkin coming over here is so important. With Malkin and everything going right, the Penguins are a borderline playoff team. Without Malkin and everything going right, the Penguins lack a real second line center and will probably again be selecting very high in the 2007 entry draft. Without Malkin and with everything going wrong, the Penguins are again in the running to win the NHL lottery draft. With Malkin and with some things going right and some things going wrong, while the Penguins probably need to rely on the misfortune of other teams to sneak into the playoffs, at least the Penguins will be in the hunt for a postseason berth for much of the season.

As any Penguins fan should know, second line centers are important. The Penguins were never legitimately a contender until Ron Francis became a second line center behind Mario Lemieux. Of course the Lemieux-Francis duo of two Hall-of-Fame caliber centers was a rare pleasure. Yet don’t discount the importance of a second-line center. In today’s NHL, one-line teams cannot even make it to the NHL postseason.

The Penguins need Malkin to be competitive. The question is, Will they get him in time for next season?