Sunday, October 22, 2006

More Defense

I wanted Noah Welch on the Penguins team coming out of training camp, and I haven’t seen enough of Kris Letang to know if he should stay in the NHL or go back to juniors (though frankly I wish he had the option of going to the AHL—I think that might be the best place for him at some point this season). On the whole, the Pens’ defense needs to be stronger as a unit. The new NHL demands that guys who can hit can also be guys who can skate. And if we don’t have those players, maybe we don’t trade for them yet—as we’re not in a position to contend yet—but you better be sure we draft those defensemen and we scout other teams in hopes of acquiring those defensemen when the team is truly close to being a contender.
Defense

As previously stated, I haven’t had the chance to watch games, but it strikes me as—er, well, umm—not a good thing that the Penguins seem to be in the habit of routinely giving up approximately an average of 39 shots per game. Marc-Andre Fleury has thus far played quite well in goal, but still—39 shots per game is just too much.

Sergei Gonchar appears to be playing like Sergei Gonchar of old, and I expect growing pains with any young defenseman—no matter how talented a young defenseman is, I expect to be driven crazy—routinely, and by routinely I mean probably, at minimum, wincing a few times each game—as a young defenseman learns how to play NHL defense. Still, this whole giving up close to 40 shots every night, it strikes me as something the coaching staff should mark as a "need for improvement" and then find or implement some plan to improve.

Unless, of course, we routinely expect to outscore the opposition. Which, perhaps, could happen in a couple more years. (I recall my early ‘90s Penguins teams doing this with frequency.) But as of right now, we lack the depth on the wings to expect to routinely outscore the opposition—particularly those "close to" and "clearly superior" opponents. Please, let’s, as a team, work on knocking some shots off that shot clock total. Not at the expense of bridling our best players, of course—but a few fewer shots against surely couldn’t hurt, right?
Inferior and Superior Opponents

In the previous post, I referred, briefly, in inferior opponents. For the first time in awhile, the Pens have played clearly inferior opponents. If the team is functioning properly and is generally healthy—the team should win these games. Perhaps "half the NHL" is overstating matters. But with the level of talent—and I don’t care how young the talent level is—the Pens have, they can win most of those games.

There’s another category of opponents—those who are clearly superior. These are the teams to which the Pens have already lost—deeper, more experienced, and at the moment, more talented teams like Carolina and Detroit. The Penguins, most often, shouldn’t embarrass themselves anymore, but in all honesty—if the other team is bringing a good game to the rink, on most nights, the Pens are going to be beat by clearly superior opponents. Fine—they’ll learn from the experience.

Yet in the NHL, there’s a whole other category, and that’s teams the Penguins are "close to"—similar enough to such that you play competitive games with these teams. Incidentally, they’re also the teams closest to you in the standings. Obviously for the Pens season to be successful, they have to beat clearly inferior opponents, and if that doesn’t happen, the season is going nowhere. But assuming the Pens can maintain their current pace of beating clearly inferior opponents, their season is going to be decided in these games with teams "close to" them in make-up and record. Sure, it would be lovely to see the young Pens sneak a game away from a team that really—on paper—looks far superior. It would be nice to get a glimpse like that of what the kids, hopefully, will be doing with regularity in the span of a few years. But the Pens’ playoff hopes, even at this early stage, appear to rest on the team getting more wins than losses against those teams "closest" to them in the standings and in talent level.

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Staal

In the past week, I’ve noticed that the Penguins have won more games than they lost. I’ve also noticed the Penguins have beaten other teams by virtue of their talent level. Seriously, you can throw Crosby, Malkin, a hot player or two and good goaltending at about half the teams in the NHL, and you automatically—no matter the youth of Crosby and Malkin—have more talent than do several other NHL teams. Against those bottom-tier, less-talented team, the 2006-07 Penguins have no excuse—but none—for losing games against clearly less-talented team. And if Michel Therrien’s teams wins the games it’s supposed to win—the Penguins should be, at bare minimum, a .500 team and possibly—given other variables—a little more than that.

Here’s the thing. Jordan Staal is a crucial reason why Pittsburgh’s penalty killing has been so incredibly effective (for the Penguins, seriously, their PK is "on it" this year). Perhaps, as Malkin acclimatizes to the NHL, he slides into the role Staal has filled on the PK unit, and the Penguins are no worse for wear. But over the course of a season, injuries (witness Ryan Malone’s current one) occur. At this moment, Staal provides solid play in his own end, extremely effective penalty killing, and depth the Penguins choose to give up if they send him back to his junior team.

I really think Jordan Staal could play a role in helping the Penguins sneak into the playoffs this year. Not to contend for the Cup, mind you. But to get the team into the playoffs, I think Staal could play a role in ensuring the 2006-07 Penguins are a playoff team for the first time in six seasons. I also think Staal’s ability to contribute to the Penguins this season isn’t the question anyone should be asking or answering.

When it comes to Staal, and to an investment an organization makes in a number two overall draft pick, the organization has to think long-term, and long-term is what is going to make Staal, ultimately, the most effective NHL player he can possibly be. When that’s the question that’s being answered—not even salary cap worries, etc—is it really best for the kid to stay in the NHL this season?

Because, hmm, he can play a "role," and perhaps more than that when injuries occur, in learning the NHL game and getting NHL experience, maybe even NHL playoff experience.
Or he can return to junior and play in every situation and develop those aspects of his game at which he’s not yet elite. Granted, he’s playing against boys, not men, and not getting NHL experience.

I read online this week that a Penguins beat reporter suggested that Staal and Letang should both be sent back to junior if the team wasn’t going to play them 18 minutes a game at the NHL level. Because, bottom line, young players learn by playing games, and they need ice time to learn the game. I think I basically agree with that sentiment—young players need game time to develop their games, and not just 10 minutes a game. (Though just to be difficult, it should be noted that Jaromir Jagr played mostly on the third line his first NHL season and was none the worse for wear come playoff time that year or definitely come playoff time the next season. Still, Jagr—his faults aside—is a 5 time NHL scoring champion and future Hall of Fame player, and no one really ever questioned that he’d eventually turn into a scoring superstar.)

In any case, if the Pens do decide to return Staal to juniors, the 2006-07 team needs to be aware of what they’re losing this season—an incredibly effective penalty killer, a role player who has the potential to be so much more than just a role player. However, if the organization decides—as the organization should when it comes to making long-term decisions—that it’s important for Staal to develop a whole repertoire of skills that could help the Pens when the time truly comes to contend—then GM Shero needs to make sure he finds a replacement for Staal on the NHL roster this season. Maybe that comes from within the organization; maybe that replacement doesn’t.

But the Penguins need what Staal has already provided this season. Granted, I think it’s far more important that they need what a more complete, more mature Staal could provide in a few seasons’ time. But if they don’t keep Staal for the season, the GM needs to do his job in the short-term and find someone who can do what Staal has already been able to do so his team still has a real chance to make the playoffs.
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Malkin

I still have yet to see Malkin play in a Penguins uniform this season, but from the games I’ve heard and what I’ve heard, he’s definitely a difference-maker this year. Hopefully I’ll have the chance to see Malkin play in the upcoming week, so then I can offer up some comments as to who he compares to in style of play, etc. But right now, all I’m saying is he gives me great hope for the future of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and good hope for this season. Because a second-line center, one who’s already a difference-maker in the NHL, makes the Penguins a much more competitive team, and I like that—a lot.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Random NHL Notes

∑ Someone please beat the Buffalo Sabres. They’re good, very good. But unbeaten? C"mon now, eventually someone has to penetrate Ryan Miller. Maybe.

∑ The Rangers started out well and have lost a few games in a row. How’s the new captain going to respond? How is the team going to respond? Their response, collectively and individually, will say a lot about how successful the Rangers season will ultimately be.

∑ Watching the Pens-Rangers game, I was struck by the finite amount of time the Rangers have, with Jagr, to transform themselves into a Cup Contender. The best days of players like Shanahan are already behind him, though he’s still a very good player. Jagr’s still a great player, but at 34, he’s not getting any younger. In contrast, I’m not worried about the time my Penguins have left to contend for the Cup. Because seriously—we have teenagers in our line-up! Babies! My Penguins have a finite amount of time, sure, but that time is 7 to 8 years, and I’m okay with waiting for 3 or 4 years because I can see what will be. But for Rangers’ fans? There isn’t time to wait. I know that’s traditionally said of Rangers fans, but in all honesty—with Jagr and Straka and Nylander and Shanahan actually being the grizzled veterans (still hard for me to believe), there just isn’t that much time left. Fans will—and should—respond to losses differently. Still, will the veterans respond with veteran savvy in New York—or not?
Random Thoughts

∑ John Leclair brings many intangibles to the Penguins; I understand why he’s on the roster. I’m not sure what intangibles Ryan Malone brings to the table. Watching the Penguins play a speedy team in Carolina—watching Malone and Leclair play was hardly the most pleasant experience. Those guys need speed, and they don’t make magic speed skates. Ice time needs to be distributed differently on nights when the Penguins are playing teams against whom the slower players—e.g. Malone, Leclair—simply don’t match up well.

∑ If Sergei Gonchar can be Sergei Gonchar, if Ryan Whitney can perform like a first round pick should, the Penguins defense is vastly improved. Frankly, I far prefer Noah Welch (currently in Wilkes-Barre) to a couple of other Penguins defenseman, and as I already mentioned, I like the way Kris Letang plays. If the Penguins’ defense can resemble a NHL defense—let’s say, everyone legitimately deserves a spot on a NHL roster—the Penguins come way closer to a playoff birth.

∑ Malkin, Malkin, Malkin. I say it all the time, but I’m really curious what difference a real second line center would have made in the two games the Penguins lost. Can Malkin work with Crosby on the power play and get something going when nothing is going? As already mentioned, can he be the player who shakes free of the shadow that’s on Crosby throughout the whole game? I’ll be curious to see what happens when Malkin returns. The temptation to keep Staal could be even greater if we see that Malkin makes a huge difference in the lineup, because suddenly, we have 4 legitimate NHL centers. That would be nice, too, wouldn’t it?

∑ Goaltending matters so much. Being screened didn’t help Fleury much last night, but the games in which the Penguins won—and will win—they’re going to get good or great goaltending. That’s just how it is.

∑ I don’t know what’s going to come of the season. But I like the babies and young players a lot. I have hope, and hope is a good thing to have—and can make even the icky games worth watching.
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If I were a betting girl….

See, I just had this feeling about last’s night game against Carolina. The defending Cup champions had to wake up at some point. The Penguins, after their victory against New York, weren’t going to be able to get away with playing the same style against Carolina. Plus, the Penguins traditionally don’t play well against the Hurricanes (I’m not going to analyze the reason for that at the present moment; perhaps someone else can comment or I’ll leave it for another day).

I wasn’t surprised to see the team lose. I saw encouraging things, but as soon as that first period goal went in on Fleury, I just sighed. My suspicion that it was going to be "one of those nights" proved true.

I wondered about my suspicions—somehow knowing the Pens would match up well with New York but not with Carolina—and while I know that I don’t bet or plan to bet on games, well, I could have made money last night.

Yet still, when it comes to my young team, I don’t really want to bet against them. Because—as in Letang’s goofy bounce goal—there are always signs something good might be just around the corner. And honestly—there will be nights like last night and nights like the Rangers game, sometimes in back-to-back games. Other times such nights will string themselves together.

Let’s just remember what we have: A young, talented team. Root for them, cheer for them—but don’t freak when they lose to the team that claimed the Cup last year. We’re not at the place where we can freak about that yet.
Random Notes

∑ I heard the Rangers-Penguins game over the Internet (actually it was over a phone connection over the Internet, but let’s never even go there) Thursday night. Hearing announcers refer to the line of Straka-Jagr-Nylander as possibly the oldest line in the NHL unnerved me. Given the way Straka and Jagr still play, I have a hard time picturing them as grizzled veterans. Yet their NHL playing time reveals the players are most definitely NHL veterans. Listening to the tic-tac-toe and lack of defense in the Pens-Rangers game, however, well, wow, it was hard to believe that Jagr and Straka were 34 years old, the way they were conducting themselves on the ice. To me, I guess Jagr and Straka will forever be the young players on those great Penguins teams of the early nineties (yes, I know Straka didn’t come along until 1993, but still, that 1993 team set a new NHL record for a17-game winning streak that season) and later the young men who still made Penguins games, sans Mario, worth watching during the late nineties.

∑ I had several thoughts about the Rangers-Pens match-up.

1. The Rangers have got to play defense if they want to go anywhere this season. More timely goaltending would help, too. But the Rangers are doing neither of their goaltenders any favors by letting up odd man breaks and taking needless penalties.

2. I agreed with Mike Lange when he said, "If this is any indication, we’re going to have a lot of fun with the Rangers this year!" I love hockey games that end in scores of 6-5. I like offense, and I like stars being allowed to be stars. I like seeing stars perform as stars. Say what you will, but the way Crosby and Jagr et. al were clicking Thursday night—the lack of defense aside—that game was exciting and tons of fun. The NHL would be well served if more games were like the Pens-Rangers game in terms of excitement and stars putting on shows that befit stars.

3. Just taking Thursday night (not the flat performance against Carolina Saturday night) into consideration, my first thought was, "The Penguins weren’t supposed to be this good." Not this year, not this fast. The Penguins are supposed to be able to win a shootout against Shanahan and Jagr someday but not necessarily this season. What I saw Thursday night wasn’t necessarily a portend of an incredibly great season to come—but Thursday’s night performance did show me what I can expect to see of the Penguins, perhaps not this season, but definitely in future seasons.

4. If the 3 teenagers perform like that every game, the Penguins win a lot more games than they lose. If the Penguins defense scores 3 goals a game, they win way more games than they lose.

5. Goaltending matters, and Marc-Andre Fleury staying hot matters, perhaps more than anything else, when it comes to Pittsburgh’s hopes of making the playoffs.
Pens Defense

In the previous post, I mentioned the Penguins defense. I really think Noah Welch is probably a better NHL defenseman than a couple of defenseman on the current roster. More importantly, I think Welch—provided he plays NHL games and gets experience—is going to be a far superior NHL defenseman to a few of the Penguins current defenseman.

His current 2-way contract aside, if Welch is one of the Penguins top 6 defenseman, he needs to find his way onto the big team’s roster, and pronto.
The Babies, er, the children, er,
the Teenagers, er, the Rookies

I finally had the chance to see Kristopher Letang and Jordan Staal play. I read online that Coach Michel Therrien had commented that he would like to keep both players for the duration of the season. After watching both babies, er, children, er, teenagers, er, rookies, play, well, I can understand Coach Therrien’s wishes.

Jordan Staal is already an extremely effective penalty killer. Staal has the size, reach, and hockey sense to know how to kill penalties. The goal scoring and offense, no doubt, will come with time. Just watching Staal kill penalties, I saw the Penguins would be losing a player who could definitely help them—special-teams wise—this season.

Kristropher Letang is the kind of defenseman I love (personal biases should be known, I feel). Beyond my love for offensive-minded defenseman who know how to make an accurate outlet pass, the 19-year-old scored 2 goals in his first four NHL games (the lucky bounce of last night’s goal against Carolina aside, 2 NHL goals count as 2 NHl goals). When I watched him on the power play, he knew what he was doing, and again, he appeared to know how to make passes that I haven’t seen Pittsburgh defensemen make with any real regularity in recent seasons. In any case, he looked like he had the potential to be better than some of the current defenseman on our roster, and the times he made me nervous by virtue of his youth and inexperience aside, I would far prefer to watch him play defense than to watch Rob Scuderi.

While I previously noted that I understood Coach Therrien’s wish to keep Letang and Staal all season long—as I’ve already seen in 4 games, both players can clear help this Penguins team this season—that doesn’t mean I agree with Coach Therrien. As a fan, I have to think longer term than this current season. Frankly, the idea of Malkin and Staal potentially being due huge contracts in the same season is hardly a pleasant thought. Beyond just future financial concerns, however, I know Jordan Staal is capable of making a contribution in the NHL this season. What I wonder, particularly in the case of Staal, is whether making the contribution he is capable of making this season is in the best interests of his long-term development. Fine, Staal’s shown he can play well in the Show this year. But playing "well" is not what the Penguins should ultimately want for a #2 overall draft pick. When it comes to Staal, two questions have to be answered affirmatively. Is it worth the future financial risk, contract-wise? Even more importantly, what experience will most help Staal to be the player the Penguins want him to be in four or five years when they hope to be a legitimate contender for the Cup?

When it comes to Staal, right now, I can’t answer both of those questions affirmatively, but then again, I’m not the general manager. In the case of defenseman Letang, well, again, he’s a defenseman. Traditionally and historically defensemen take time to learn the craft of NHL defense. Letang doesn’t have the option of going to Wilkes-Barres to adjust to the pro game if should even a brief sojourn be desired at some point in the season. While I hope Letang does turn into the next Brian Raflaski, the same two questions have to be answered affirmatively. Contract-wise, what do you think this kid is going to become? More importantly, is he going to be helped more by a return to major juniors or by taking a regular shift in the NHL? And are the Penguins committed to giving the kid a regular shift in the NHL (because sitting on the pine isn’t going to be in the best interests of a 19-year-old in the least)?

Since I am not general manager Ray Shero, I don’t have the answers to these questions. Perhaps my heading for this entry provides a clue as to the answer. It should be noted that generally speaking, I like to watch talented young players. I like to watch talented younger players, as a general rule, often before I like to watch players in their primes (personal preferences again being made known here). I love to watch those players and dream about what they’ll become and enjoy them when they become all I saw they could be when they were just babies—kids—teenagers—rookies.

Is it the best interests of the teenagers to remain rookies for this season? Is it in the best interest of the franchise to see these 2 teenagers remain rookies for this season?

Oh, and please provide an explanation as to "why."

My answers may not turn out to be Ray Shero’s. But here are my tentative ones, for the moment.

Staal: The contract’s too risky for the franchise, and he needs to be all-over dominant. His already-evident penalty killing prowess aside, I want him to be more than just a great penalty killer. Back to junior, and in the Show to stick next year.

Letang: I really, really like defenseman like him. If the Penguins will commit to playing him in every situation and as a top-6 defenseman all season, he can stick. However, if the Penguins have 6 defensemen who are currently better NHL defensemen, then send Letang back to juniors. If he’s legitimately one of your top 6 defenseman, please, keep him around; for as crazy as his youth and inexperience might drive me this season, I’m sure to enjoy the pretty passes and occasional show.

I don’t know how Shero is going to answer the questions I asked, but I know one thing—for the next five games, whatever happens after that aside—I’m going to enjoy watching the babies—children—teenagers—rookies—play NHL games.
Visuals, Finally

Dad sent me a tape of the season opener, so I finally got to see the Pens play this year. Last night, too, I got to watch an incredibly flat Penguins team take on the Carolina Hurricanes. So all of today’s postings come from the limited perspective of having seen parts of two games—the 1st and 2nd periods of the opener and (unfortunately) all of last night’s game. But hey, I’ve seen games now, which is progress from last week.
One Huge Caveat

Included in the tape of the season opener was the press conference with Mario and the new owner. My initial gut reaction was: Wow, if only there were an arena already built.

Because here is everything I liked about the man behind Blackberries. He was smart and articulate. He was no-nonsense, blunt, and direct. More importantly than those character traits, however, he was so excited to be purchasing the Penguins. He really, really, really wanted a hockey team. Even more so than really, really, really wanting a hockey team, I could immediately perceive that the new owner wanted to win. He knew the players on the team, he knew the promise of the team, and he wasn’t buying a hockey team just for the sake of making money. In all of 5 minutes, I could clearly tell this new owner wants to win the Stanley Cup.

Can you see everything good about the new owner of the Pittsburgh Penguins? Unlike the ownership of the local baseball team, this man wants to win. More so than just wanting to win, he has the money to make sure winning happens. If, in about three years’ time, the Penguins are a player away from the Cup, this new owner is going to bite the figurative bullet and spend the money on that player (salary cap permitting, of course). The new owner loves the game, and more than that, he already loves his new team—and he already wants to win it all. How can you not love a deep-pocketed, passionate owner who wants to win?

However, everything good about the Pens’ new owner comes with a giant caveat, or asterisk, or whatever you want to term it, and that caveat/asterisk comes because ground has yet to be broken on a new arena for the city of Pittsburgh. All the character traits of bluntness and intelligence, which could help the Penguins franchise immensely, can also lead to the Penguins becoming known as a different franchise than the Pittsburgh Penguins. To put it frankly: the man behind Blackberries isn’t going to fool around or be patient with government officials who can’t figure out how to get a new arena constructed and constructed as quickly as possible. The new owner of the Pittsburgh Penguins is not going to ensure the team remains the Pittsburgh Penguins if a new Pittsburgh arena isn’t built pronto. This man is insanely wealthy, has a Harvard MBA, and while he wants to win, he didn’t buy the Penguins to lose money. Fact of the matter is, the team is going to lose money if it stays in Mellon Arena indefinitely. Likewise, as much as the new owner wants to win, he’s not going to have the amenities of a new arena that will enable him to shell out the dollars that will help the team when the time comes to add the last pieces to transform a contender into a champion. Simply put, everything that makes the "Blackberry guy" a potentially terrific owner also makes me wary and—honestly, yes—a little afraid.

Because I like the new owner already. I’m also aware of how fast I could not like the new owner because of how fast he can up and move my team out of my hometown. Here’s the thing: the new owner wouldn’t be wrong to do that if a new arena doesn’t get built. He wouldn’t be. Because his goal, as a owner, are two things: to turn a profit and to win.

The reason I like the new owner—giant caveat aside for the moment—is because he’s already proven he knows how to run a successful business and is clearly capable of applying his intellect to owning a NHL franchise. Yet beyond business success, I already love the new owner’s clear desire to win. This guy wants a winning team. I’m not going to go in-depth on analyzing his Canadian background, his personal hockey coach, and maybe his desire—through ownership—to make a childhood dream of winning the Stanley Cup become reality in too much detail (though perhaps I just did). But if there already were a perfect new 21st century arena in Pittsburgh, I’d be embracing this new owner with everything I’ve got. Because he’s got it all—business sense, money, and the desire to win.

Yet with all those good things comes a giant caveat. This new owner’s not going to wait or tolerate idiocy. Not when he wants to run a successful franchise that wins it all. And if the people who have to pull their strings to get a new arena don’t start pulling their strings, it’s not Mario Lemieux or the new owner I’m going to want to boo. No. My booing will be reserved for the people who couldn’t get their acts together to get a new arena. I’m going to want to chase those officials who couldn’t get their acts together out of town—or at the very least, out of office.

Hear me clearly, elected officials?

Oh, and to the new Pens owner: Welcome to Pittsburgh. I hope the Penguins win several more Stanley Cups, in Pittsburgh, under your ownership. I hope you get a new arena and get a new arena fast.

To the elected officials: Get the arena taken care of. Pronto. Fast. This new owner, he doesn’t play.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

The Old NHL versus the New NHL

There are obvious differences between the old NHL and the new NHL. For example, the amount of power play time in an average game—puh-leaze. The obstruction that used to be acceptable and isn’t anymore. The list goes on.

However, what I have been pondering lately is how the old NHL versus the new NHL affects various types of players. My brother informed me that one of the Penguins babies, defenseman Letang, "will owe his career to the new NHL." Apparently, Letang can skate and play defense well positionally, etc, though he is not a huge behemoth by any means. My brother was noting that the NHL game has changed—brute force will not be enough anymore.

It made me wonder about currently injured Penguins defenseman Brooks Orpik, and if perhaps his less than stellar speed, coupled with hard-hitting ways (not all the time, Pens fans, I’m certainly aware of that) were better suited to a NHL game that no longer exists. Likewise, I wondered about the power forward who dominated the old NHL. The player who was perhaps not gifted with foot speed at all but who could stand in front of the net and dish out body checks and take a beating and use soft hands to put the puck in the net. I wondered if there would be room in the new NHL for players like a younger version of John Leclair or one-time Penguin Kevin Stevens. I wondered if Ryan Malone would ever be able to achieve at an above-average level in the present NHL.

Because the game is different now, and obstruction that was once permissible no longer is, and because so much of the game depends on being able to skate with speed and authority, I wondered about those players of old. The slow-footed yet tall and brutal defenseman who could at least cover in his own zone a little bit? The power forward who had skates of mud but hands of gold?

Is there still room for these types of players in the new NHL? Will defensemen like Letang replace defensemen like Orpik at the NHL level? Will every power forward need to be able to skate at will in addition to having hands of gold? Which old players—renowned in the old NHL—would be out of a job, or have a job description severely altered, by the new NHL?

And, as it pertains to my Penguins—which players do we need to ice the best team for the new NHL, and who are the players who aren’t going to help us win in the new NHL?

Thoughts?
Penguins Musings

My Penguins, on the other hand, managed to win their first game and lose their second game. I didn’t see either game, but from what I have heard and read, here are some thoughts.


∑ Malkin would have made a difference in the loss to the Red Wings. With the reigning Norris Trophy winner all over Crosby and Crosby shadowed, Malkin could have, potentially, had the free room that Crosby didn’t have throughout the game. Malkin’s presence might have been enough to have helped the Penguins to get the one goal they needed to tie the game.


∑ If Marc-Andre Fleury can continue to play goal as well as he has in the first two games, the Red Wings coach is right. With goaltending as good as what the Pens have had for their season’s first two games, the Penguins are immediately a competitive team most nights (even when they have no business being a competitive team). Being a competitive team most nights means the Penguins will be in contention for a playoff berth for much of the season—so long as the goaltending remains as high caliber as it has been for the remainder of the season.


∑ The 2006-07 Penguins are a much better coached and prepared team than were the 2005-06 Penguins. Therrien’s system is obvious in terms of shots blocked, shots given up, and in attributes like the penalty killing being flawless throughout the season’s first two games. Therrien’s system is another factor that will help Pittsburgh to remain competitive in games in which the team has no business being competitive.


∑ With all my talk about games in which this team has no business being competitive, you might wonder why. Frankly speaking, this Penguins team is still way too slow for the new NHL. John Leclair and Ryan Malone, in all honesty, have games that were better suited for the old NHL. However, Leclair brings intangibles, and as for Malone, well, the Penguins don’t currently have anyone better to take his place. In any case, however, there are other NHL teams that are still far more talented and more experienced than this Penguins team. Our young stars aren’t yet as good as they will someday be, nor do they have the NHL experience that makes great players even better than they already are. Our young, talented stars will get experience this year, and eventually, hopefully, through the developmental system or trades, we’ll ice a faster team than the one we currently have. But to be honestly realistic—this Penguins team, talent-wise, is middle-of-the-pack merely due to the presence of extremely gifted youngsters and a couple of aging but once perennial All-Stars. Speed-wise, however, we’re just not where a good team in the new NHL has to be. Period.


∑ I haven’t yet had the chance to see Ryan Whitney play defense this year, but the box scores reveal Whitney has been logging a ton of minutes. He was the fifth overall draft choice of the Pens a few years ago, and I’m really hoping he makes that high draft choice seem a wise, worthwhile investment. I understand defensemen take longer to develop (Chris Pronger’s first three NHL seasons, anyone?) and that Whitney is still learning the NHL game. But if he can take several steps forward this year (not necessarily one giant leap) and start to show signs of becoming a legitimate number 1 NHL defenseman on a real NHL defense, well—that development would go a long way towards helping the Penguins compete for a playoff spot.


∑ I refer to the youngsters currently on the team (the ones who could still be returned to their junior team) as "the babies." Because, well, they are. However, it’s exciting to see young kids successfully able to kill NHL penalties and hold their own—and more than their own—against NHL competition. For that very reason, however—due to how good the kids already are—I’d send them back to junior after their nine game cup of coffee. Because, frankly, I don’t want Jordan Staal merely to know how to kill penalties in the NHL. I want the number 2 NHL draft choice to know how to skate, score, pass, and dominate, and yes, of course, he can kill penalties and win faceoffs, too. Staal isn’t ready to dominate the NHL yet, and I want him to be closer to being able to dominate when the time comes for him to take a regular NHL shift. Plus, I just think 30 minutes of ice in every situation, rather than 10 minutes of ice time in limited situations, is far more beneficial for an 18-year-old kid. Tempting as it might be to keep Staal around to kill penalties this season, the Penguins made a long-term investment in him, and that investment isn’t merely to make sure the kid can kill penalties. Much as love seeing "the babies," play and play well, I’ll be even more glad to see them play when they’re just as talented and one year older.
More Rangers Musings

Seriously, however, the Rangers remind me of my Penguins teams back in the mid to late nineties. (Jagr and Martin Straka were on the team at various points.) Those Penguins teams—by virtue of Jagr’s presence and of a few other gifted offensive players—managed to produce offensively. Defense, however, was—er—how to put this—not exactly a priority. There were days when the Penguins routinely gave up more shots than they took.

In any case, the Rangers’ rookie sensation in goal doesn’t look as though he is about to suffer the ill effects of a sophomore slump anytime soon. But the Rangers are surely not going to help Henrik the Great remain great if they make it a habit to give up 30, 35, and 40 shots an evening. When Jagr and Shanahan are producing, fine, wonderful, the Rangers have two lines that can score, perhaps even score at will. Nevertheless, at some point, team defense is going to have to kick in for the team to make real progress.

Granted, my best Penguins teams often treated defense as an afterthought during the regular season and managed to execute a defensive game plan come playoff time. But the NHL now is different than the NHL was ten to fifteen years ago, and 90 points are required to make the playoffs. This isn’t to say the Rangers will not make the playoffs if they don’t tighten up defensively, it’s just to say—there’s room for improvement given the amount of shots the Rangers are giving up habitually.

To summarize (as if my suggestions carry weight anyhow): Let the offensive stars do their thing, but also make sure the whole team knows how important team-wide defensive play is.

Still, the best thing about the Rangers, at least two games into this season? Just like my Penguins of old—they’re a fun team to watch. No matter how many shots they give up.
Jags and the Rangers

I will always love Jaromir Jagr (set aside the snarky comments for the moment, please). Jags will forever be the talented teenager who won two Cups his first two years in the league and later fulfilled the potential he’d shown early in his career when he became widely recognized as the best player in the game.

All of which is why I was glad to see the newly minted Rangers captain appeared to show no ill effects from last season’s shoulder injury and subsequent surgery. If Jagr can continue scoring two points a game, the Rangers can cross off their captain’s play from their list of concerns. (There are other concerns the Rangers need to address, but more on those in a minute.) As a fan of hockey, and yes, as the person who’s always loved to watch Jagr play, I want him to play at his peak this season. Because, fact of the matter is, Jagr is going to turn 35 this year. Even with all the advances in modern medicine, etc, at some point, age catches up to the greatest of hockey players (witness Mario Lemieux and Steve Yzerman last season as cases in point). Frankly, I’d like another season of remembering Jagr as one of the best, most creative, and most productive players in hockey. I’d like to remember why he’s going to end up in the Hall of Fame. I’d like to enjoy watching him dominate games for at least one more season.

So, yes, although the Rangers play in the same division as my Penguins, I’m still pulling for Jags and the Rangers. Because unlike the young stars of my Penguins (Crosby and Malkin) whose best days are in the future, Jagr and his Rangers have a finite amount of time left to contend for the Cup—that’s just how the nature of aging works.

Just saying—it was nice to see the Rangers win their first two games, and nicer still to see Jagr pile up two points a game—and I’d like to see that continue all season.

Cause yeah, I love Jags—so what?
Qualifier

Everything I post today must begin with the qualifier that the only two teams I’ve actually seen play thus far were the Sabres and Hurricanes on opening night. Nevertheless, I’ll still be posting thoughts based on what I’ve heard from others who’ve seen games as well as my own opinions, etc, garnered from box scores and game recaps.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Malkin

After Mom’s scouting report, after news of an injury, I was relieved to hear that Malkin wasn’t going to need shoulder surgery. I’m very much looking forward to seeing him play, and I know the Penguins are going nowhere fast without a legitimate number 2 NHL center. (Yes, that could be termed a prediction, but based on last season spent without a number 2 center, I think my prediction leans more toward verifiable fact than accurate guess.)

However, if something goes awry with Malkin’s shoulder, and considering his talent level and value to the Pens franchise should he blossom into the star he’s expected to become—as much as it would suck in the present moment, have the surgery. Get the surgery done; do the rehabilitation. Do what needs to be done so that the kid can truly become all that he’s supposed to be, unhampered by an injury.

However, that doesn’t change the fact that I’m thrilled—for the moment—that I get to see the kid play this season.

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Oh, anyhow

After all that fussing about the pointlessness of making predictions, well, guess what I think I’m—sort of, anyhow—about to do as it pertains to my Pittsburgh Penguins?

Looking at the team’s current roster, it strikes me that the roster’s major parts aren’t that different from the major parts of the team that won the rights to the #2 overall pick in the NHL draft last spring. While Ray Shero appears to have done a good job in bringing in players like Dominic Moore, etc, the Penguins are still relying on Sidney Crosby, Mark Recchi, John Leclair, and Ryan Malone to provide much of their scoring. The Penguins will still be relying on Sergei Gonchar to be their number one defenseman. Unless Recchi, Leclair, and Gonchar—all veterans—put up way better numbers than last year, this Penguins team is going nowhere fast. The complimentary role players Shero has acquired will not make a dent if the Penguins do not get reliable scoring from their wingers, a defense that resembles an NHL defense, and NHL caliber goaltending every night.

I can hear the protests about why the Penguins will be better. Crosby will be a year older and be better. Fine, agree. It’s not enough. The role players will help. Fine, agree. It’s not enough. We’ll have a real second line center in Malkin. Absolutely agree Malkin’s presence—once he is healthy enough to play—will make a huge difference.

Yet the ability of the Penguins to improve on last season’s record depends on large part on players who were members of the team last season. Can Brooks Orpik and Ryan Whitney develop into above-average NHL defensemen this season? Can Mark Recchi and John Leclair put the puck in the net on a regular basis? Can Ryan Malone find the net? Can players who lack speed find ways to compensate for their lack of speed? Can Marc-Andre Fleury or another one of our goaltenders consistently post a save percentage above .900 and give the Pens a chance to win most games?

Notice that none of my statements above are actually predictions. Perhaps I am trumpeting a warning—or a calling card, something to which we can look forward. Because if our wings can put the puck in the net, if our young defensemen can develop quickly, if our goaltender can stop the puck—well, that should be enough to be competitive against most teams most nights. Yet if those things don’t happen, well, didn’t we see that show last year? Bad goaltending, bad defense, slow wingers who couldn’t score? You saw the Sidney Crosby show, but you saw that show last season, too.

Just so you know—I’m not saying it necessarily goes one way or the other way. In fact, I might guess the best the team could hope for is a split somewhere down the middle. They’d still have hope.

But as for actual predictions—nope, don’t do that, but as a fan, I hope for the best—a great season for Crosby, a Calder Trophy for Malkin, a goaltender who can stop the puck consistently, defensemen who learn to play effective NHL defense, wingers who remember how to skate and score, a team that can play a system as necessary—

You look at all of those things and make your own prediction. What’s most likely to happen? What’s most likely not to happen?

Go ahead, be the prescient genius. I don’t mind at all—so long as some of those dreams become reality this season.