Sunday, December 03, 2006

Recent Losses

Fortunately or unfortunately, I didn’t have the chance to see the two recent losses of my hockey team. Friday night’s loss I chalked up to the goalie imploding—seriously, every goalie, even those of All-Star caliber, have those so-called "off" nights throughout a season. Unfortunately, the Penguins aren’t yet a team that can afford—when it comes to the standings and the playoff picture—for their goaltender to have one of those nights where it seems like he couldn’t stop a beach ball. (Harsh, I know.) However, just like Pens’ players, I was very aware of the games that Marc-Andre Fleury has won for the team thus far this year. And one game, really, where things are off, by the end of November? If someone had told me that at the start of the season, I would have taken it.

Now, of course, Fleury can’t continue to have games like that—meaning those games cannot come with frequency. The Pens need their starting netminder to find a groove and to find a groove fast and to shake off the loss and go back to doing what he had been doing for most of the rest of the season. Once again, as the team is presently constructed, the Pens simply don’t have room for error when it comes to goaltending. In order to be in contention for a playoff spot, Pittsburgh is going to need consistent and high-quality goaltending throughout the season.

While my team losing of course irritates me (I speak of mild irritation that comes because I don’t have the temporary emotional boost that sometimes come with a string of victories—because, yes, I probably smile slightly more easily the morning after a win), I think these are the losses that—honestly—are the ones that make the Pens a borderline playoff team. Because, when it comes right down to it, the Pens can play pretty even with teams in their division. And while others would beg to differ with me, I’m not yet convinced with the Rangers, Devils, or Islanders, as presently constructed, are as TEAMS vastly—or even just a little—superior to the Pens. (Caveat: Partisans of each team could debate their team’s superiority until the cows come home—but take a look at each team’s current record. What do you see? Teams with similar number of points. Now, if still so inclined, debate away about the quality of each Atlantic team.) However, the Pens can play evenly with these teams, and these teams can play evenly with them. And on some nights, one team prevails, and on some nights, the other team prevails. That’s usually what happens with parity.

As much as I enjoyed the Pens’ best-in-the-league division winning record through their first 10 division games, there probably was too much parity in the Atlantic Division for the young Pittsburgh team to maintain that division record. Nonetheless, if the Pens want to be a playoff team, they’re going to have to find a way to win those close games that come against their Atlantic Division rivals. Yes, games against the Devils, Rangers, and Islanders fall into those category of games that aren’t necessarily against "clearly superior" or "clearly inferior" opponents. But the Pens have to start winning those games once again if they want to make the playoffs.

And as for the two recent losses? Well, here’s hoping what one always hopes when cheering for a young team. Hopefully mistakes were learned from and will not be repeated—and hopefully losing leaves a bad enough taste in the mouths of the youngsters so that they’re determined not to repeat the same mistakes in their next bout with a divisional rival. (Of course, being young players, there’s always a possibility of still more, yet uncommitted errors—but for now, I hold to the side of hope. After all, it is the holiday season.)

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Shots Against

I don’t have the ability (or the time, to be perfectly honest) to watch every Penguins game. And yet scanning the box scores, something stands out that has to change for the team to win.

To put it mildly—the Pens give up way, way, way, too many shots. Seriously—you expect to get outshot by a 2-1 margin or 3-2 margin and still win games? The mere fact that the Penguins have stayed in so many games is a testament to the great goaltending they’ve received thus far at this early juncture in the season.

Now I understand some of the reasons why the Pens give up so many shots. Really, one doesn’t want to lasso the creativity of players like Crosby or Malkin. Seriously, years ago, I cared mostly that Jaromir Jagr was scoring goals and not so much about whether or not he was strictly adhering to the defensive system that then-coach Kevin Constantine had installed. Likewise, I also get that the Pens are a young team, with a young defense, and that they get caught—far too often—in their own zone.

I also know that these Penguins have done some good things. They’ve been able to kill penalties (lots of penalties) with aggressive penalty killing and sharp goaltending. They’ve been able and willing to block shots. Theoretically—if not yet practically—they appear to understand that it’s important to prevent the opposition from scoring more goals than you do.

However, the Pens cannot keep giving up the number of shots they are giving up and expect to maintain an above .500 record. Sure, their young players—even their young stars—have to learn to sustain pressure even against the best opponents the league has to offer. Sure, their young defensemen have to learn how to get the puck out of the zone and how to prevent opposing players from taking shots. And it would certainly help the whole team a great deal if they would stop what seemed like a constant parade to the penalty box at various times this past week.

I still think this is both a coaching and execution thing, and it’s also not something that I expect to get fixed magically and overnight. But, honestly—if the Pens truly want to sneak into the playoffs this year, and I still think the team has the talent to do that—they have to stop giving up so many shots to their opponents every night.


p
On the Youngsters

Lest anyone think my previous post was too harsh on Crosby, Malkin, et.al, I want to make absolutely clear that despite the current winless streak, I still love watching these Penguins. Sure—did I see (okay, hear about) our best young players, our young stars, not consistently performing as stars this week?

Was there really a game when Malkin failed to score on a breakaway?

Did Marc-Andre Fleury actually fail to "stand on his head" for a game and the game wasn’t nearly as close as Fleury’s been keeping many games?

Was Sidney Crosby really kept without shots and points?

Since I didn’t see the games, I am not even going to start commenting on Jordan Staal, Ryan Whitney, or Noah Welch (I’m sure a quick scanning of various message boards could clue me in, but I’ll abstain for the moment).

Here’s the thing. The Penguins' young players are talented, some more talented than others, some already stars, and I love to watch them play. I love to hear about how they played, and I love to read about how they played. And yet—they’re young. They’re not yet in their primes. They’re not yet as good as they’re going to be, and for as good as some of them are, they’re not yet all they will be.

So, lest one think I’m being too hard on the kids—I still love that they’re on my team. I still look forward to watching them become all that they one day will be. And sure, yes, I get mad when they fail to convert on a power play or they make a rookie mistake or whatever—

And yet I know. Someday, and someday not that far away, they’re going to bury that opportunity.

Now, of course, I want them to do it now—I’m like any fan in that. Yet I also have to take a long-term perspective and realize—they’re just kids. Seriously, they’re kids. And really, to have a chance to get that upset about what a teenager or young twentysomething failed to do—in all actuality, it’s a privilege.

Of course, this is all easy to say when the winless streak is only at five games and the team is still above .500. Even the patient, long-term perspective I’ve tried to adopt is going to be tried by a winless streak that lasts much longer and an overall record that dips under .500.

But for now—beat the Flyers and the Rangers this week, that would be nice and appreciated.

#
Spreading Around the Scoring

As I scanned the box scores this week, it was nice to see some names that hadn’t made frequent appearances on the score sheet. Seriously, when Moore and Ekman start scoring goals, well, that can only be a good thing for the Pens, right?

Except—except—yes, the Penguins need scoring depth. They need contributions from their role players. They need contributions from their third and fourth lines, and sure, it would be great if the wingers on the top two lines would make their mark on the score sheet with far greater frequency. Yet dare I say—even with scoring depth—that more scoring depth isn’t going to help if the Pens’ stars don’t play like stars.

Yes, every star has games where they get shut down. It happened to Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, and it’s going to happen to Crosby and Malkin, too. Yet here’s the thing—right now—honestly—the Penguins do not have enough scoring depth to compensate for when an opposing defense figures out how to smother Crosby and Malkin just has an off day. (Yes, stars have off days, too, and in particular, rookies who are playing their first season in a foreign country might occasionally have a day when they look more like a rookie than a star.) When Crosby and Malkin don’t find their names on the scoresheet, I’m going to venture a wild guess (sarcasm should be duly noted) that the Penguins lose far more frequently than they win.

The Penguins need their stars to be stars. And yes, they absolutely need scoring depth to compensate for those times when opponents figure out how to prevent stars from performing as stars. Yet the Pens—and Crosby and Malkin—need to reach the point where, perhaps, a superior opponent limits their opportunities but can’t fully contain them. Even if it’s a harsh night, somehow, whether that’s on the power play or a productive shift—Crosby and Malkin have to find the openings and perform as stars when given an opening. Because, at least as the team is currently constructed, if Crosby and Malkin fail to produce, the Penguins—a very, very high majority of the time—fail to win.
Eaton

I’ve previously noted that the Penguins are not a deep team. If and when injuries to key players occur, this team, as currently comprised, simply does not have the depth to cope with such injuries.

Since Chris Pronger was on the trade market this summer (yes, yes, I understand all the very legitimate, logical, and good reasons why my Pens didn’t trade for him), I wasn’t necessarily jumping up and down in joy when the Pens got defenseman Eaton this summer. Okay, he was reputed to be a veteran, legitimate NHL defenseman (but Sergei Gonchar had come with more of a pedigree last season and didn’t play up to that pedigree for much of the 2005-06 season). In any case, watching (okay, hearing and reading about) Pittsburgh losing games this week, it occurred to me that Eaton has made an impact on the defense.

Frankly, Eaton can help to stabilize the defense. It is way better to pair one of the Pens’ young defensemen with a veteran, steady player like Eaton. And when Eaton is missing—as he was after he was injured in the game against San Jose—the entire Pens team suffers. The Pens might have been closer than they were (closer than close) to sneaking away 2 points from a couple of games this week if Eaton had played.

In any case, here’s hoping Eaton gets better soon. And here’s hoping that the young Penguins defensemen don’t just learn from mistakes—but learn enough from mistakes not to repeat the same mistakes.
Sigh….
(But Not a Long Sigh)

The past week was one of those weeks I’d anticipated the Pens would have prior to the start of the 2006-07 season. However, with the team’s fast start, and the whole winning more than losing thing seeming to become habitual, this week stung more than it probably should have.

Over the course of the past week, the Penguins played several teams that I would classify as "superior" opponents. Frankly, these are games that the Penguins should lose, at least if you’re talking to the coach of the opposing team. Why? Because from top to bottom, the Penguins played teams that were—take a deep breath now—better than they currently are. Whether we’re talking special teams units, or scoring depth, or experienced and savvy NHL defensemen, or superstars in their primes instead of the infancy of their careers, the Penguins got beat by better teams this week.

Fortunately for Pittsburgh fans, the Penguins players—despite their curiously lackadaisical effort against Ottawa Friday night—do not like losing. Even better for the future of Pittsburgh’s franchise, the players on the Penguins appear to expect to win now. The players’ collective distaste for losing, in addition to their play this week, is the reason why I titled this post "Sigh" instead of "A Long Sigh."

Here’s the thing that was so frustrating this week if you were a Penguins fan. Despite the fact that the Pens were clearly outplayed in several of the games—none of the games were blowouts. The Penguins had a chance to win a game against the team with one of the best records in the NHL. And even when the Penguins found ways to shoot themselves in the foot (taking penalties repeatedly, for example), they still stayed close in several of the games they played. And, yes, in comparison to last season—staying close to some of the league’s best teams has to be considered an encouraging sign.

Yet, of course, the frustration that prompted my sigh, is, of course, that frustration that comes when a team is on a 5 game winless streak. Losing makes me sigh; losing leaves a bad taste in my mouth. And losing is particularly frustrating because these Penguins, really, were close to being able to win a couple of those games. Sure, a couple of those games, aside from sharp goaltending, could easily have turned into blowouts. Yet a few less penalties, a couple of different bounces—and the young Pens might have won a couple of games this week.

Young. That’s the thing. These Penguins, on the whole, are a young team, which is why I expected weeks like this prior to the start of the season. I expected and anticipated winless streaks, particularly when my young team faced off against deeper, more experienced, and frankly, teams that are currently more talented than is Pittsburgh. And while this winless streak is no fun (and I want it to end Monday when the Pens play the Flyers), it’s not a wholly bad thing.

Why isn’t this winless streak bad? Because the players are going to learn from the mistakes they made this week. Because losing is going to leave a bad taste in the mouths of the youngsters and make them want to improve their play and not repeat the same mistakes. Because, even if it doesn’t happen next year, perhaps in two years, these mistakes—and yes, these losses and winless streaks—will bear fruit. Because the players will have learned the hard lessons of what it takes to play with the best teams in the NHL. Because the players will have developed their skills, hopefully, to the point, that they play on one of the best teams in the NHL and know how to use the experience they gained this year to beat more inexperienced teams.

None of the assurances of future fruit, of course, which I firmly believe to be absolutely the case, will ever make a five game winless streak enjoyable for players or fans. Which is to say—please beat the Flyers.

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Oh, But….

While I say that Crosby and Malkin will probably be impossible to shut down one day, I recall that the Florida Panthers managed to do just that to Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr in 1996—the year (aside from 1993) that leaves the worst taste in my mouth from all the Pens’ playoff losses in the nineties.

Yet the new NHL, the way the rulebook is actually enforced, the way Jaromir Jagr now thinks teams will seek to emulate the speed and skill of the Buffalo Sabres rather than the 10-year-old trap of the New Jersey Devils, I think the new NHL will make it that much harder to shut down Malkin and Crosby.

Kind of makes the nostalgic part of me wonder what might have been if this NHL has existed back when Jagr and Mario were still in their primes and playing for the Pens? But at least the future of the Penguins looks incredibly promising.
Speaking of What Will Be

In two years’ time, the Penguins will win the game they lost to the Sharks last night. Why? Because Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, I expect and anticipate, will have figured out what to do when other teams adjust to them. I also expect and anticipate that perhaps the Penguins will have more of a core around Crosby and Malkin at that time, that Staal will be able to contribute more than he already is, and that the Penguins will be able to beat the Sharks in a close game instead of losing to the Sharks in a close game.

Frankly speaking, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are in their mid-twenties. Whenever Crosby and Malkin hit their early twenties—let alone the mid-twenties—the Penguins will be scary good, and shutting down Crosby and Malkin will be near impossible. The kinds of "adjustments" that work against the Penguins now will not work in a couple of years’ time.

Of course, all that is said with the caveat of the salary cap, assuming the Penguins can keep their young star players and develop an even better core around those players. Yet in that close loss to San Jose (I have yet to see the game, so I speak from what I heard), the Penguins were able to play with San Jose. Last season, the team would have been blown out, no question. This year, the Penguins can skate and compete with a team that was one of the best in the West last year. In all honesty, even though the Penguins lost the game, I take the loss as an encouraging, hopeful sign—and I’m even more encouraged and hopeful because I believe the Pens’ young players have begun to develop a disdain for losing. And I believe that disdain for losing will only prompt those young players to work harder to figure out what they have to adjust so they can beat a team like San Jose the next time around.

Still, for all I talk about "encouraging losses," losses are still losses, and I don’t want the Penguins to lose. I’m really curious to see what happens—for good or bad—when Crosby and Malkin have to face Pronger and Niedermayer. The best youngsters against the game’s most elite and experienced defensemen. It should be interesting. Yet I don’t really want another "encouraging loss." Because close games, sure, they’re encouraging signs—but the team is still losing.

And frankly, I’ve really enjoyed watching these Penguins win thus far this season. Yet as the part of the schedule unfolds where the Penguins face some of those I deemed "superior" opponents—well, I’ll just have to watch and see what happens.

But can we please see if we can continue the whole winning more than we lose and make it a habit? I like that habit. I think it’s a good habit, and it’s a habit I want to see continue for a long, long time.
Whitney, Welch, Letang

While I admitted to liking Letang’s style of play, young defensemen need to be playing a regular shift in all circumstances. Since Letang wasn’t going to do that in Pittsburgh this season, it was better to send him back to Val D’or. Fine. I’m okay with that, and I actually think Welch is more NHL ready at the moment anyway.

But here’s the thing when it comes to Whitney, Welch, and Letang. Letang is back in juniors now, but what I said of him still applies to Welch and Whitney. Sure, Welch and Whitney played 4 years of college hockey. Sure, they’re older than Letang. It doesn’t matter. They’re still young defensemen. Young defensemen are going to drive you crazy throughout a season and even throughout a game. They are learning how to play a position in a league that’s been transformed.

I am not saying that idiotic and juvenile mistakes should be continually tolerated. I am saying, however, that one should ask Mike Keenan how Chris Pronger looked that first season in St. Louis. (Caveat: If Welch or Whitney ever turn out to be 2/3 or 3/4 the player Pronger is, I will be floating on cloud nine, so I am not making a direct comparison.) Pronger didn’t look like Pronger does today, and while he didn’t look like a lost, clueless kid all the time, he resembled an average defenseman more than a Norris Trophy winner.

Thus, when it comes to Welch and Whitney this season, have some patience—as the coaching staff works with them in practice, as they get more experience—just have some patience. They are not yet who they will be, and really, we don’t know who they will be yet. Give them a chance. And when Letang returns next season or after a season of seasoning in Wilkes Barre in 2 years time (how I wish he could get that seasoning in Wilkes Barre now), he’ll be only 20 or 21 years old—still a kid. Have some patience with him, too.

And appreciate what you’ve got. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are already superstars. Defensemen, even the greatest, are not usually superstars or stars their first 2 seasons. Please, patience—and the way the coaches handle the young defensemen will tell you a lot about how long you should keep your patience.

Ä
Effective Coaching

Dare I utter the phrase "good coaching"? Since one never knows how quickly a team can dive into a tailspin, I’m going to go with "effective coaching" right now. But know that no matter my word choice, effective coaching/good coaching, all I’m really saying is that Michel Therrien has done a good job thus far this season.

Sure, the players have to execute the game plan. Sure, the players have to be prepared to execute the game plan. Yet the coach has to be able to come up with a game plan, and he has to know how to prepare the players to execute the game plan. Of course it helps Therrien that his number 1 goalie has thus far played the way a number 1 goalie should play. The addition of Malkin has automatically made Therrien a much smarter coach (amazing how adding great players can make coaches smarter).

Yet what Therrien has done—allowing stars to be stars, working to find the right fits for players on the third and fourth lines, and even just having the penalty killing and power play units functioning at an above-average level—has helped the Penguins to make huge improvements( at least as compared to last year’s wretched start).

Granted, Therrien is not a genius by any means. The Penguins still give up way too many shots on goal on a nightly basis. And while I grew up adoring and cheering for players who "passed and passed and passed" the puck, at times, the Penguins’ gifted youngsters are going to need to shoot the puck. (I’m not a "shoot the puck" freak by any means, but occasionally, the players are going to need to take shots they haven’t yet been taking.) There remains room for improvement across-the-board, perhaps no more evidenced by the average number of shots against the Pens concede.

Yet look at the team’s record at the moment. I’m pleasantly surprised, and I want to continue to be pleasantly surprised. As long as Therrien keeps "making adjustments" to find what works and then doing what works, as long as the players keep buying into it, well, the new NHL hasn’t changed that much.

Effective coaching still can make an average team a good team and a good team a very good team. For obvious reasons, I’d like to see effective coaching throughout the remainder of the 2006-07 hockey season.
Staal Stays


I spent most of Monday hoping the Penguins would keep Jordan Staal, and when word came that Pittsburgh had indeed decided to keep the NHL’s lone eighteen-year-old, I was glad.

At the start of the season, I really expected to be advocating for Staal to dominate at the junior level—you know, let the kid learn every aspect of the game playing against boys, etc. Save for the fact that Jordan Staal showed me—and more importantly, showed the powers-that-be in the Penguins organization—that he was more than capable of being an effective NHL player this season.

While Staal remains 18 years old, he doesn’t have the body of an eighteen-year-old kid, and the size and strength he already has will benefit him tremendously at the NHL level. Even more importantly, I now believe playing in the NHL this season accelerates Staal’s development. The kid is already a crucial member of the Pens’ penalty-killing unit, and I was pleased with the games he played in a second line role. Staal gets to learn the NHL game, but he isn’t going to be pressured to play top line minutes right away, and meanwhile, the Penguins already have an incredibly effective penalty killer who, right now, I am dreaming may one day become what Ron Francis was to Mario Lemieux.

Staal has shown the ability to put the puck in the net and to play effective defense and to work to improve his game, and frankly, if the Penguins had chosen to send him back to juniors on Monday, I would have been disappointed. Disappointed not just because the Penguins would have immediately become a weaker team (they certainly would have) but disappointed because I wouldn’t have the chance to watch a young star learn how to play at such a level in the NHL.

In any case, Staal is here to stick for the moment, and I, for one, am really glad Staal is staying.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Random Thoughts

∑ I like the way Letang plays, but most defensemen need seasoning time. While Letang may not be ready for the NHL, I wish he could be in the AHL this season. I think he’s learn more playing against men than boys in junior. Anyhow, that’s just a complaint about NHL rules. I know the reasons for the rules, the need to keep Canadian major junior hockey content, but sometimes—I just wish individual options were available so what is in the best interests of the player could be done.

∑ Keeping Letang around because he is the only right-handed shooting defenseman seems rather silly. I am not saying we just go about randomly making trades, but if we truly need a right shooting defenseman, can we go about exchanging a fifth and sixth defenseman, perhaps, so we can acquire a right handed shot if we deem that necessary?

∑ Granted, the Penguins have a younger core now than they did to start last season. But just looking at Fleury’s statistics this year, I really wonder if Fleury had started last season here, what a difference that might have made in the wretched start to the 2005-06 Pens’ season. When goaltending is good, teams usually win more than they lose, particularly when you have the talent up front that the Pens do.

∑ Eric Staal thinks the Penguins would be crazy to send his little brother back to juniors. Yet I know the Penguins have been known to do crazy things (witness what they did last year with Fleury). Somehow I want the Pens to make the best decision for Staal’s development and for the team, and I really want money to stay out of it. Because if you’re just sending the kid down to avoid a big time pay-out later on, it’s not a good enough reason. It’s just not a good enough reason. If the kid can play in the NHL this season, and if he’ll learn more playing here than by playing against boys in juniors, keep him where he belongs, money be darned. (Caveat: Obviously I’m a fan and not the general manager tasked with building a future Stanley Cup champion. So keep my caveat in mind.)

∑ The housecleaning in Philadelphia was similar to what happened in Pittsburgh last year (to some degree), and it happened for a similar reason. Philadelphia, Forsberg and Gagne aside, wasn’t built for the new NHL. And, just like the Pens last year, it doesn’t help when your goaltending is way less than mediocre.

∑ Have the Rangers found an identity yet? The team hasn’t seemed to make up its mind who it is, and I don’t know what to make of the Rangers yet, save to know that Jagr and Shanahan need to perform consistently, the whole team needs to find discipline, and the gold-medal winning sensation whose last name I really should learn how to spell needs to find his game for the Rangers to have any chance for contending for the Atlantic Division lead.

∑ There is still something patently unfair about Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger playing on the same defense, and I say this even after Sergei Gonchar has gotten off to a "fast" start is Malkin's landlord. I’m really curious to see what happens when the Penguins face the Ducks.
It’s a Show Again

I had the chance to see Malkin’s fantastic goal against the Devils on Tuesday night. The play was obscene; that’s how beautiful it was, it was obscene. In any case, when the Penguins’ young stars put on a show, as they did Tuesday night when they took advantage of the Devils’ mistakes, and as they most certainly did when they pummeled the Flyers yesterday, I draw in a deep breath of "Wow!"

Because, as I heard the Pittsburgh announcers reminisce, "There used to be at a time, when Mario and Jagr and Francis were playing here, that you just looked forward to the next game because you knew it was going to be a show." The announcers went on to note that the Penguins had become something of a "traveling road show" and to note that young fans in Pittsburgh were lining up to watch the youthful stars of the Pens star on Mellon Arena ice.

In any case, I got hooked on hockey, as a kid, watching that show in Pittsburgh. I didn’t know, at the time, how incredibly spoiled I was compared to fans in other cities. I mean, Mario Lemieux and then Jaromir Jagr—who had another Hall of Fame player in Ron Francis alongside them for much of their Pittsburgh careers? I loved watching hockey, and I loved watching the show the Penguins stars used to put on whenever there was a game.

And watching Crosby, Malkin, Staal, and Fleury do their thing at the start of this season, it’s just been a sigh of, Wow! Wow, I remember what that felt like as a kid. And watching and re-watching Malkin’s goal, it’s been awhile since I’ve watched a Penguin score a goal that fantastic. Sure, I saw the obscenely fantastic goals of Jagr and Mario, and I’ll always have their playoff goals etched in my memory. But Malkin’s goal Tuesday night—the fourth of many more to come, I hope—made me feel a way I hadn’t remembered feeling since I was a kid. Because when I was a kid, Jaromir Jagr was still a kid, and I remember watching him with the puck, and marveling at his skill and wondering about how much more was still to come.

Malkin’s goal gave me a glimpse, provided, of course, health stays intact, of what is to come. And to be honest, I like what I’m seeing. I haven’t been this excited about hockey, I don’t think, since the days when my Penguins were winning Cups in the early nineties. Because right now, I think I’m beginning to see, as I saw with Malkin’s goal Tuesday night, the genesis of an emergence of the core of a team that could claim the Cup—not just once, but repeatedly.

At the moment, though, I’m just enjoying the breath of "Wow" that comes when I watch the young stars do their thing, and you bet I’m going to enjoy the show whenever the Penguins play.

Oh, and guys? I’m expecting a show now. Thank you for your play, and for that expectation you’ve set so high already—because, really, I really, really love hockey whenever I see stars put on a show.
The Upcoming Road Trip

Apparently the locals in the Pittsburgh media are convinced that the Penguins upcoming road trip will tell us if the team is "for real" or not. As much as it pains me to agree with some members of the Pittsburgh media, I agree. However, I feel I must qualify my agreement with some statements about what we might expect to learn as the Penguins embark on their first real road trip of the season.

∑ How are Crosby, Malkin, and Staal (if he’s still here) going to match up against Norris Trophy winners Pronger and Niedermayer? Are they going to be completely smothered, or is one of our young stars going to make an elite defenseman look silly? (Don’t you remember how much fun it was when Mario Lemieux turned Ray Bourque inside out at various moments in his career?)

∑ How are the Penguins going to react to their first tough loss, or to being plain beat by a superior opponent? If such an event should occur, for example, when the Penguins face off against the Ducks, how are the players going to react?

∑ Do the Penguins, team-wide, have the speed to match up with the quickness of the teams they’ll be playing? Does Coach Therrien have a plan to compensate for his team’s lack of speed throughout the roster?

∑ How are the Penguins, as a team, going to handle the guys who won the league scoring title and goal scoring title last season? Can the team’s defense step up to the challenge, or will they just be plain overmatched?

∑ How is a young player—whether it be Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, or a defenseman—going to react the first time they have a game that doesn’t go as well as recent games have been going? The player’s reaction and response, in how they work to adjust their games, will say a lot about where the team can go for the rest of the season.

Honestly, both the Sharks and the Ducks were playoff teams last season, and the Penguins’ porous play last year legitimately earned them the right to draft Jordan Staal second overall. Even if the Penguins lose both games to the Sharks and the Ducks, I’m talking games that are close, and by close I mean 2 goal losses, as moral victories. (Not that players want to hear that, and for that, I commend them, and it’s why I’m convinced the young players are ready to contend right now.) Because, honestly, the Ducks were the preseason favorite of many prognosticators to win the Stanley Cup, and because the Ducks have two players in Niedermayer and Pronger who are obscenely talented and also have the NHL experience that our obscenely talented stars are still in the midst of acquiring.

Even harsh losses—being pummeled by a team or two—could end up working to the Penguins’ ultimate advantage. Because, through games that are hard and tough, our players will learn what it takes to compete against players like Niedermayer and Pronger and Thornton—and they’ll be getting the experience they need. So that, at perhaps some later point this season or even in the next couple of seasons, those lessons will pay dividends for the Penguins.

How do we know if this Penguins team is "for real?" Honestly, even if they lose games on the road trip, say all the games, we don’t know if they’re "for real" until we see how the team reacts to those losses. Do they come back roaring and ready and make sure they beat the teams they’re already clearly superior to? Do they react by improving their games and adjusting their strategies? How does the team react?

I’d be thrilled if the Penguins could sneak a point or two off either the Sharks or the Ducks. I’d be happy. I’d also be tempted to say the team is "for real." But I already know the young talent is "for real." And even if the young talent shows off its inexperience more than its skill set on this road trip, the young talent is still real—it just may not mean contending for the division title this season real.

In any case, a really successful road trip to me means sneaking a victory or a tie. Yet a somewhat successful road trip could include close losses that show the Pens aren’t far from competing with the league’s elite teams. Or even a temporarily disappointing road trip—returning home with a 3 game losing streak—could still provide fertile ground for future growth.

Yes, of course, I’m curious to see what happens on the road. I’m curious to see, especially, what the kids can do. I think the Pens will be limited by the rest of their roster when it comes to team speed and depth when facing off against some of the best teams in the Western Conference, and I wonder how the Penguins’ team limitations will affect the young stars of the team—perhaps making them easier to neutralize than they would be if surrounded by a true contending team. But no matter what—I’m excited to see—okay, read about (the games are on late)—what transpires over the next week of this Western road trip.

J
Wow! So soon?

After watching (okay, mostly hearing and reading about) the Penguins getting off to a 6-3 start, one thought keeps repeatedly rolling through my mind. The team wasn’t supposed to be this good. Not yet. Not right now. They weren’t supposed to be competing for the Atlantic Division lead. They were supposed to be lucky to earn a playoff berth. They weren’t supposed to, on some nights, be the better team than teams that are considered contenders. None of that was supposed to happen this year.

Granted, everything comes with the huge caveat that the Penguins are all of 9 games into the season and have yet to complete a major road trip. Still, let’s look at everything that’s gone right at the start of the season:

∑ Sidney Crosby is still Sidney Crosby.

∑ Evgeni Malkin takes my breath away—literally. He’s already a star.

∑ The only time Jordan Staal looks anywhere near eighteen years of age is when he’s off the ice.

∑ Marc Andre Fleury has lived up to his pedigree and is stopping the puck like top-tier NHL goalies should.

∑ The team’s defense, while still nowhere near the level of elite, has been more than adequate enough when the young players mentioned above do their thing.

Given everything that’s going right so far, it behooves to go back and look at the expectations I held prior to the start of the season. I expect this season to be a season of "growing pains"—I expected to see potential fulfilled on some nights, but I also expected to endure some games where I’d have to remind myself the team’s core players are young.

I’m in the midst of revising my preseason expectations (I’m sure constantly altering my expectations will become a consistent theme of this blog throughout the season), and I’m revising my expectations precisely because of the play of the "kids" so far. I’m stating it flat-out: The reason I still don’t consider the Penguins a Stanley Cup contender has nothing to do with the kids. Right now—yes, hear me, right now—the kids are more than capable of being the core players on a for-real Cup contender. Yes, of course, I hope and expect the kids will get better with age. Never mind that. Jaromir Jagr got better with age and he was still a crucial piece to the puzzle in the Pens’ championship years. I’m sure Eric Staal is only going to improve, but Carolina doesn’t win the Cup last year without him. Besides, the new NHL gives skilled players—such as the Pens kids—a real showcase for their all-world talent. In any case, I’m convinced that right now—yes, right now—the Pens’ core players are the real core of a legitimate Cup contender.

Granted, of course, my previous statement does still come with the caveat that the kids are kids. While I don’t want Jordan Staal returned to his junior team at the present moment, he still could be. And even the greatest players in hockey history have games where they don’t score a goal (it will happen to Malkin eventually) and even the game’s best goalies have off nights (I hope it doesn’t happen to Fleury any time soon). The kids are kids, and yes, they’re going to have off nights and mini-slumps and perhaps even slumps. And they’re going to face off against teams with better depth and with all-world defensemen (see the Anaheim Ducks) with gobs of experience. But through nine games of the season, I’ve seen the talent these "kids" have, and the talent is real, special, and explosive—and enough to dominate opponents. Domination isn’t going to come every night, but at the present moment, the kids have shown me enough to convince me that they’re for real as the core of a Cup contender—right now.

However, there is no way the Pens can yet be considered a legitimate Cup contender. Sure, I can make that statement for the usual reason that we’re only nine games into the season, blah blah, blah, which is true. I can also make the statement because the kids are kids and at some point, even if only for a few games, their youth and inexperience will lead to the so-called "rookie" mistakes. But honestly, my issue with the Pens is not with their core players but with the players surrounding their core players. Until the wingers figure out how to score with consistent regularity, until the Penguins wingers and the rest of the roster convince me they have the depth to overcome multiple injuries (I don’t expect me to be convinced), and until the defensemen truly gel as a unit—I can’t say the Pens are anywhere near being a Cup contender. Because to be a contender for the Cup, you need more than just a core of stars. You need players who support those stars. Yeah, sure, you need to know that the stars are going to perform come crunch time (and we haven’t had the chance to see that at the NHL level yet), but you need a team. The Penguins, as a team, still appear to lack the team-wide speed and depth necessary to be truly considered a for-real Cup contender. And frankly, I’m really not yet ready for general manager Shero to start bargaining with one of his core players to bring in depth because I don’t think the team is at the point where they’re ready to make a move like that. Yet I also think the team is closer to being ready for a move such as that than I would have dared to think prior to the start of the season.

Many questions remain about the 2006-07 Penguins. Can the stars remain healthy for a whole season? Does Staal even stay for a whole season? Can Fleury play this way all year? What happens if—dare I even mention this—one of the stars gets hurt at some point in the season? Can the stars keep playing the way they’ve been playing all season long? And even if everything good happens in answer to those above questions—the stars stay stars, the young players keep getting better, and Fleury stays great all year—what about the rest of the team? Does the team have the depth and speed to match up well with above-average and contending teams? Can the team win the close 1-goal games they lost so frequently last season?

At the present moment, I don’t know the answers to those questions, and I still feel one reasonable answer to why the Pens aren’t a for-real contender yet is because an injury to one of their stars would kill them, and by kill them, I mean they would lose games they would win with the star in the line-up. (The Pens won the Cup playing games without their starting goaltender, Mario Lemieux, and Joey Mullen, at various points.) But one thing I do know, especially after reading the box scores of games like those against the Flyers last night—this team is going to be fun to watch—and hopefully, it’s going to be fun to watch this team win a lot more than I expected at the start of the season.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Random NHL Notes

∑ Dare I speak too soon, but I don’t think the Buffalo Sabres are as good as were my NHL record setting 17 game winning streak 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins. I would appreciate it if some NHL team would at least tie the Sabres. A tie with a red-hot Ryan Miller should be within the realm of possibility. And if my Pens play the Sabres any time soon, I very much desire for my young team to have one of those nights where they play "out of their minds" and as though they’re a few years older than they are, and you know, beat Buffalo.

∑ Peter Forsberg is a great player. The edge with Sidney Crosby plays the game reminds me of Forsberg’s edgy style. Forsberg, for all he might complain about Crosby, is borderline dirty and nasty. Yet Forsberg’s greatness made me wonder—what the heck is the problem in Philadelphia? And what is the irony of Forsberg captaining the Flyers, given the Eric Lindros trade?

∑ The Rangers appear to have some issues with defense and goaltending and perhaps depth. I still like the Rangers, of course, and still love Jags and Marty, so I hope the team can find some consistency. But finding some defensive consistency might help out the Rangers sophomore Swedish goaltender quite a bit. So how about it, New York? Defensive consistency? Everybody doing their part? Can you manage that 2 years in a row? Oh, and interesting questions to watch—how’s the team going to react when the Garden crowd—as it’s already done—starts hissing and booing instead of cheering? Is Jagr’s head in the right place, and will his head stay in the right place all season? (I really, really hope so—but it’s something that bears watching.)

∑ I really see so little of the Western Conference what with needing to get at least some sleep, so these statements come with a huge caveat. Eric Lindros, at least if SI is to believed, has found a home in Dallas. Good for him; the Stars need help. Apparently, if message boards are to be believed, some Anaheim fans don’t yet fully "get" Chris Pronger. Here’s the thing—you don’t "get" Pronger the way you get Scott Niedermayer. But when you watch most NHL defensemen play and then you watch Pronger, you "get" him, and you’ll get him way more as the season continues. Just my 2 cents.
Random NHL Notes

∑ Dare I speak too soon, but I don’t think the Buffalo Sabres are as good as were my NHL record setting 17 game winning streak 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins. I would appreciate it if some NHL team would at least tie the Sabres. A tie with a red-hot Ryan Miller should be within the realm of possibility. And if my Pens play the Sabres any time soon, I very much desire for my young team to have one of those nights where they play "out of their minds" and as though they’re a few years older than they are, and you know, beat Buffalo.

∑ Peter Forsberg is a great player. The edge with Sidney Crosby plays the game reminds me of Forsberg’s edgy style. Forsberg, for all he might complain about Crosby, is borderline dirty and nasty. Yet Forsberg’s greatness made me wonder—what the heck is the problem in Philadelphia? And what is the irony of Forsberg captaining the Flyers, given the Eric Lindros trade?

∑ The Rangers appear to have some issues with defense and goaltending and perhaps depth. I still like the Rangers, of course, and still love Jags and Marty, so I hope the team can find some consistency. But finding some defensive consistency might help out the Rangers sophomore Swedish goaltender quite a bit. So how about it, New York? Defensive consistency? Everybody doing their part? Can you manage that 2 years in a row? Oh, and interesting questions to watch—how’s the team going to react when the Garden crowd—as it’s already done—starts hissing and booing instead of cheering? Is Jagr’s head in the right place, and will his head stay in the right place all season? (I really, really hope so—but it’s something that bears watching.)

∑ I really see so little of the Western Conference what with needing to get at least some sleep, so these statements come with a huge caveat. Eric Lindros, at least if SI is to believed, has found a home in Dallas. Good for him; the Stars need help. Apparently, if message boards are to be believed, some Anaheim fans don’t yet fully "get" Chris Pronger. Here’s the thing—you don’t "get" Pronger the way you get Scott Niedermayer. But when you watch most NHL defensemen play and then you watch Pronger, you "get" him, and you’ll get him way more as the season continues. Just my 2 cents.
The Flyers

I heard on Sporting News radio today that Ken Hitchcock had been fired as the Flyers’ coach and that Bobby Clarke was stepping down as general manager. As a Pens fan, I just hate the Flyers. I was so excited when we beat them, but I didn’t realize Philly was in a serious free-for-all. I haven’t paid enough attention, really, (e.g. I haven’t seen the Flyers’ play) to know why what’s happening in Philly is happening there.

Though, of course, I’d probably blame goaltending before anything else. But apparently the Flyers were into waiving Petr Nedved. Seriously, does anyone know what Nedved’s deal is? Can the boy—at 34 now, just like Jagr, not a boy anymore—still skate? If he can still skate, what’s his contract like? Seriously, could he be a productive winger (more productive than what the Pens have) alongside one of our two stud centers? I speak with no knowledge, just memories of Nedved from almost a decade ago (he was one of my faves, as you may have guessed).

And, of course, Aleksey Morozov, currently tearing up the RSL, isn’t worth a huge NHL contract, and I’m assuming he’s quite content to be a star and make millions in his native land. He never did put it altogether on this continent, anyway.

Yet somehow I wonder, as I mentioned the wingers previously, if Nedved or Morozov—who both once knew how to score and had very soft hands—would be able to convert those dandy set-ups of Malkin and Crosby’s—into goals with more regularity than our current wingers.

In any case, players like that would be a short-term fix, the same way Mark Recchi and John Leclair are at present. The Pens ultimately need younger—not as young as their centermen—wingers when the time comes for the team to contend.

ê
Wings

We also lack depth on the wings, and to be honest, none of our wingers impress me. Fine, Jaromir Jagr, (I could be wrong on this) once netted a NHL scoring title skating alongside Jan Hrdina and Kip Miller. It’s not always necessary for great players like Malkin and Crosby to play alongside other obscenely talented players.

Yet how much more successful was Jagr when he played with Ron Francis and Petr Nedved? Seriously? How many points did Mario start scoring when he finally had All-Star wingers and a Norris-Trophy winning defenseman to play with?
At some point—whether it means converting a center to a winger—the Penguins have to get more depth on the wings, and they have to get players who can complement Malkin and Crosby. I don’t mind putting them together—E.J. won a playoff series by putting Jagr and Mario on the same line one year—but when you do put them together, eventually, the teams with depth are going to reveal your lack of depth, and you’re going to lose games.

I don’t know where the Pens go to find wings who can compete in the new NHL. I don’t know where they find them at a reasonable price. But I know they need players who can put the puck in the net, skate, and be defensively responsible. Fine, we don’t have them this season, and it’s a weakness. But we need to find them if we really want to contend. So let’s start looking, searching, and perhaps, eventually, beckoning them to the Pens?

)
More Defense

I wanted Noah Welch on the Penguins team coming out of training camp, and I haven’t seen enough of Kris Letang to know if he should stay in the NHL or go back to juniors (though frankly I wish he had the option of going to the AHL—I think that might be the best place for him at some point this season). On the whole, the Pens’ defense needs to be stronger as a unit. The new NHL demands that guys who can hit can also be guys who can skate. And if we don’t have those players, maybe we don’t trade for them yet—as we’re not in a position to contend yet—but you better be sure we draft those defensemen and we scout other teams in hopes of acquiring those defensemen when the team is truly close to being a contender.
Defense

As previously stated, I haven’t had the chance to watch games, but it strikes me as—er, well, umm—not a good thing that the Penguins seem to be in the habit of routinely giving up approximately an average of 39 shots per game. Marc-Andre Fleury has thus far played quite well in goal, but still—39 shots per game is just too much.

Sergei Gonchar appears to be playing like Sergei Gonchar of old, and I expect growing pains with any young defenseman—no matter how talented a young defenseman is, I expect to be driven crazy—routinely, and by routinely I mean probably, at minimum, wincing a few times each game—as a young defenseman learns how to play NHL defense. Still, this whole giving up close to 40 shots every night, it strikes me as something the coaching staff should mark as a "need for improvement" and then find or implement some plan to improve.

Unless, of course, we routinely expect to outscore the opposition. Which, perhaps, could happen in a couple more years. (I recall my early ‘90s Penguins teams doing this with frequency.) But as of right now, we lack the depth on the wings to expect to routinely outscore the opposition—particularly those "close to" and "clearly superior" opponents. Please, let’s, as a team, work on knocking some shots off that shot clock total. Not at the expense of bridling our best players, of course—but a few fewer shots against surely couldn’t hurt, right?
Inferior and Superior Opponents

In the previous post, I referred, briefly, in inferior opponents. For the first time in awhile, the Pens have played clearly inferior opponents. If the team is functioning properly and is generally healthy—the team should win these games. Perhaps "half the NHL" is overstating matters. But with the level of talent—and I don’t care how young the talent level is—the Pens have, they can win most of those games.

There’s another category of opponents—those who are clearly superior. These are the teams to which the Pens have already lost—deeper, more experienced, and at the moment, more talented teams like Carolina and Detroit. The Penguins, most often, shouldn’t embarrass themselves anymore, but in all honesty—if the other team is bringing a good game to the rink, on most nights, the Pens are going to be beat by clearly superior opponents. Fine—they’ll learn from the experience.

Yet in the NHL, there’s a whole other category, and that’s teams the Penguins are "close to"—similar enough to such that you play competitive games with these teams. Incidentally, they’re also the teams closest to you in the standings. Obviously for the Pens season to be successful, they have to beat clearly inferior opponents, and if that doesn’t happen, the season is going nowhere. But assuming the Pens can maintain their current pace of beating clearly inferior opponents, their season is going to be decided in these games with teams "close to" them in make-up and record. Sure, it would be lovely to see the young Pens sneak a game away from a team that really—on paper—looks far superior. It would be nice to get a glimpse like that of what the kids, hopefully, will be doing with regularity in the span of a few years. But the Pens’ playoff hopes, even at this early stage, appear to rest on the team getting more wins than losses against those teams "closest" to them in the standings and in talent level.

I
Staal

In the past week, I’ve noticed that the Penguins have won more games than they lost. I’ve also noticed the Penguins have beaten other teams by virtue of their talent level. Seriously, you can throw Crosby, Malkin, a hot player or two and good goaltending at about half the teams in the NHL, and you automatically—no matter the youth of Crosby and Malkin—have more talent than do several other NHL teams. Against those bottom-tier, less-talented team, the 2006-07 Penguins have no excuse—but none—for losing games against clearly less-talented team. And if Michel Therrien’s teams wins the games it’s supposed to win—the Penguins should be, at bare minimum, a .500 team and possibly—given other variables—a little more than that.

Here’s the thing. Jordan Staal is a crucial reason why Pittsburgh’s penalty killing has been so incredibly effective (for the Penguins, seriously, their PK is "on it" this year). Perhaps, as Malkin acclimatizes to the NHL, he slides into the role Staal has filled on the PK unit, and the Penguins are no worse for wear. But over the course of a season, injuries (witness Ryan Malone’s current one) occur. At this moment, Staal provides solid play in his own end, extremely effective penalty killing, and depth the Penguins choose to give up if they send him back to his junior team.

I really think Jordan Staal could play a role in helping the Penguins sneak into the playoffs this year. Not to contend for the Cup, mind you. But to get the team into the playoffs, I think Staal could play a role in ensuring the 2006-07 Penguins are a playoff team for the first time in six seasons. I also think Staal’s ability to contribute to the Penguins this season isn’t the question anyone should be asking or answering.

When it comes to Staal, and to an investment an organization makes in a number two overall draft pick, the organization has to think long-term, and long-term is what is going to make Staal, ultimately, the most effective NHL player he can possibly be. When that’s the question that’s being answered—not even salary cap worries, etc—is it really best for the kid to stay in the NHL this season?

Because, hmm, he can play a "role," and perhaps more than that when injuries occur, in learning the NHL game and getting NHL experience, maybe even NHL playoff experience.
Or he can return to junior and play in every situation and develop those aspects of his game at which he’s not yet elite. Granted, he’s playing against boys, not men, and not getting NHL experience.

I read online this week that a Penguins beat reporter suggested that Staal and Letang should both be sent back to junior if the team wasn’t going to play them 18 minutes a game at the NHL level. Because, bottom line, young players learn by playing games, and they need ice time to learn the game. I think I basically agree with that sentiment—young players need game time to develop their games, and not just 10 minutes a game. (Though just to be difficult, it should be noted that Jaromir Jagr played mostly on the third line his first NHL season and was none the worse for wear come playoff time that year or definitely come playoff time the next season. Still, Jagr—his faults aside—is a 5 time NHL scoring champion and future Hall of Fame player, and no one really ever questioned that he’d eventually turn into a scoring superstar.)

In any case, if the Pens do decide to return Staal to juniors, the 2006-07 team needs to be aware of what they’re losing this season—an incredibly effective penalty killer, a role player who has the potential to be so much more than just a role player. However, if the organization decides—as the organization should when it comes to making long-term decisions—that it’s important for Staal to develop a whole repertoire of skills that could help the Pens when the time truly comes to contend—then GM Shero needs to make sure he finds a replacement for Staal on the NHL roster this season. Maybe that comes from within the organization; maybe that replacement doesn’t.

But the Penguins need what Staal has already provided this season. Granted, I think it’s far more important that they need what a more complete, more mature Staal could provide in a few seasons’ time. But if they don’t keep Staal for the season, the GM needs to do his job in the short-term and find someone who can do what Staal has already been able to do so his team still has a real chance to make the playoffs.
,
Malkin

I still have yet to see Malkin play in a Penguins uniform this season, but from the games I’ve heard and what I’ve heard, he’s definitely a difference-maker this year. Hopefully I’ll have the chance to see Malkin play in the upcoming week, so then I can offer up some comments as to who he compares to in style of play, etc. But right now, all I’m saying is he gives me great hope for the future of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and good hope for this season. Because a second-line center, one who’s already a difference-maker in the NHL, makes the Penguins a much more competitive team, and I like that—a lot.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Random NHL Notes

∑ Someone please beat the Buffalo Sabres. They’re good, very good. But unbeaten? C"mon now, eventually someone has to penetrate Ryan Miller. Maybe.

∑ The Rangers started out well and have lost a few games in a row. How’s the new captain going to respond? How is the team going to respond? Their response, collectively and individually, will say a lot about how successful the Rangers season will ultimately be.

∑ Watching the Pens-Rangers game, I was struck by the finite amount of time the Rangers have, with Jagr, to transform themselves into a Cup Contender. The best days of players like Shanahan are already behind him, though he’s still a very good player. Jagr’s still a great player, but at 34, he’s not getting any younger. In contrast, I’m not worried about the time my Penguins have left to contend for the Cup. Because seriously—we have teenagers in our line-up! Babies! My Penguins have a finite amount of time, sure, but that time is 7 to 8 years, and I’m okay with waiting for 3 or 4 years because I can see what will be. But for Rangers’ fans? There isn’t time to wait. I know that’s traditionally said of Rangers fans, but in all honesty—with Jagr and Straka and Nylander and Shanahan actually being the grizzled veterans (still hard for me to believe), there just isn’t that much time left. Fans will—and should—respond to losses differently. Still, will the veterans respond with veteran savvy in New York—or not?
Random Thoughts

∑ John Leclair brings many intangibles to the Penguins; I understand why he’s on the roster. I’m not sure what intangibles Ryan Malone brings to the table. Watching the Penguins play a speedy team in Carolina—watching Malone and Leclair play was hardly the most pleasant experience. Those guys need speed, and they don’t make magic speed skates. Ice time needs to be distributed differently on nights when the Penguins are playing teams against whom the slower players—e.g. Malone, Leclair—simply don’t match up well.

∑ If Sergei Gonchar can be Sergei Gonchar, if Ryan Whitney can perform like a first round pick should, the Penguins defense is vastly improved. Frankly, I far prefer Noah Welch (currently in Wilkes-Barre) to a couple of other Penguins defenseman, and as I already mentioned, I like the way Kris Letang plays. If the Penguins’ defense can resemble a NHL defense—let’s say, everyone legitimately deserves a spot on a NHL roster—the Penguins come way closer to a playoff birth.

∑ Malkin, Malkin, Malkin. I say it all the time, but I’m really curious what difference a real second line center would have made in the two games the Penguins lost. Can Malkin work with Crosby on the power play and get something going when nothing is going? As already mentioned, can he be the player who shakes free of the shadow that’s on Crosby throughout the whole game? I’ll be curious to see what happens when Malkin returns. The temptation to keep Staal could be even greater if we see that Malkin makes a huge difference in the lineup, because suddenly, we have 4 legitimate NHL centers. That would be nice, too, wouldn’t it?

∑ Goaltending matters so much. Being screened didn’t help Fleury much last night, but the games in which the Penguins won—and will win—they’re going to get good or great goaltending. That’s just how it is.

∑ I don’t know what’s going to come of the season. But I like the babies and young players a lot. I have hope, and hope is a good thing to have—and can make even the icky games worth watching.
û
If I were a betting girl….

See, I just had this feeling about last’s night game against Carolina. The defending Cup champions had to wake up at some point. The Penguins, after their victory against New York, weren’t going to be able to get away with playing the same style against Carolina. Plus, the Penguins traditionally don’t play well against the Hurricanes (I’m not going to analyze the reason for that at the present moment; perhaps someone else can comment or I’ll leave it for another day).

I wasn’t surprised to see the team lose. I saw encouraging things, but as soon as that first period goal went in on Fleury, I just sighed. My suspicion that it was going to be "one of those nights" proved true.

I wondered about my suspicions—somehow knowing the Pens would match up well with New York but not with Carolina—and while I know that I don’t bet or plan to bet on games, well, I could have made money last night.

Yet still, when it comes to my young team, I don’t really want to bet against them. Because—as in Letang’s goofy bounce goal—there are always signs something good might be just around the corner. And honestly—there will be nights like last night and nights like the Rangers game, sometimes in back-to-back games. Other times such nights will string themselves together.

Let’s just remember what we have: A young, talented team. Root for them, cheer for them—but don’t freak when they lose to the team that claimed the Cup last year. We’re not at the place where we can freak about that yet.
Random Notes

∑ I heard the Rangers-Penguins game over the Internet (actually it was over a phone connection over the Internet, but let’s never even go there) Thursday night. Hearing announcers refer to the line of Straka-Jagr-Nylander as possibly the oldest line in the NHL unnerved me. Given the way Straka and Jagr still play, I have a hard time picturing them as grizzled veterans. Yet their NHL playing time reveals the players are most definitely NHL veterans. Listening to the tic-tac-toe and lack of defense in the Pens-Rangers game, however, well, wow, it was hard to believe that Jagr and Straka were 34 years old, the way they were conducting themselves on the ice. To me, I guess Jagr and Straka will forever be the young players on those great Penguins teams of the early nineties (yes, I know Straka didn’t come along until 1993, but still, that 1993 team set a new NHL record for a17-game winning streak that season) and later the young men who still made Penguins games, sans Mario, worth watching during the late nineties.

∑ I had several thoughts about the Rangers-Pens match-up.

1. The Rangers have got to play defense if they want to go anywhere this season. More timely goaltending would help, too. But the Rangers are doing neither of their goaltenders any favors by letting up odd man breaks and taking needless penalties.

2. I agreed with Mike Lange when he said, "If this is any indication, we’re going to have a lot of fun with the Rangers this year!" I love hockey games that end in scores of 6-5. I like offense, and I like stars being allowed to be stars. I like seeing stars perform as stars. Say what you will, but the way Crosby and Jagr et. al were clicking Thursday night—the lack of defense aside—that game was exciting and tons of fun. The NHL would be well served if more games were like the Pens-Rangers game in terms of excitement and stars putting on shows that befit stars.

3. Just taking Thursday night (not the flat performance against Carolina Saturday night) into consideration, my first thought was, "The Penguins weren’t supposed to be this good." Not this year, not this fast. The Penguins are supposed to be able to win a shootout against Shanahan and Jagr someday but not necessarily this season. What I saw Thursday night wasn’t necessarily a portend of an incredibly great season to come—but Thursday’s night performance did show me what I can expect to see of the Penguins, perhaps not this season, but definitely in future seasons.

4. If the 3 teenagers perform like that every game, the Penguins win a lot more games than they lose. If the Penguins defense scores 3 goals a game, they win way more games than they lose.

5. Goaltending matters, and Marc-Andre Fleury staying hot matters, perhaps more than anything else, when it comes to Pittsburgh’s hopes of making the playoffs.
Pens Defense

In the previous post, I mentioned the Penguins defense. I really think Noah Welch is probably a better NHL defenseman than a couple of defenseman on the current roster. More importantly, I think Welch—provided he plays NHL games and gets experience—is going to be a far superior NHL defenseman to a few of the Penguins current defenseman.

His current 2-way contract aside, if Welch is one of the Penguins top 6 defenseman, he needs to find his way onto the big team’s roster, and pronto.
The Babies, er, the children, er,
the Teenagers, er, the Rookies

I finally had the chance to see Kristopher Letang and Jordan Staal play. I read online that Coach Michel Therrien had commented that he would like to keep both players for the duration of the season. After watching both babies, er, children, er, teenagers, er, rookies, play, well, I can understand Coach Therrien’s wishes.

Jordan Staal is already an extremely effective penalty killer. Staal has the size, reach, and hockey sense to know how to kill penalties. The goal scoring and offense, no doubt, will come with time. Just watching Staal kill penalties, I saw the Penguins would be losing a player who could definitely help them—special-teams wise—this season.

Kristropher Letang is the kind of defenseman I love (personal biases should be known, I feel). Beyond my love for offensive-minded defenseman who know how to make an accurate outlet pass, the 19-year-old scored 2 goals in his first four NHL games (the lucky bounce of last night’s goal against Carolina aside, 2 NHL goals count as 2 NHl goals). When I watched him on the power play, he knew what he was doing, and again, he appeared to know how to make passes that I haven’t seen Pittsburgh defensemen make with any real regularity in recent seasons. In any case, he looked like he had the potential to be better than some of the current defenseman on our roster, and the times he made me nervous by virtue of his youth and inexperience aside, I would far prefer to watch him play defense than to watch Rob Scuderi.

While I previously noted that I understood Coach Therrien’s wish to keep Letang and Staal all season long—as I’ve already seen in 4 games, both players can clear help this Penguins team this season—that doesn’t mean I agree with Coach Therrien. As a fan, I have to think longer term than this current season. Frankly, the idea of Malkin and Staal potentially being due huge contracts in the same season is hardly a pleasant thought. Beyond just future financial concerns, however, I know Jordan Staal is capable of making a contribution in the NHL this season. What I wonder, particularly in the case of Staal, is whether making the contribution he is capable of making this season is in the best interests of his long-term development. Fine, Staal’s shown he can play well in the Show this year. But playing "well" is not what the Penguins should ultimately want for a #2 overall draft pick. When it comes to Staal, two questions have to be answered affirmatively. Is it worth the future financial risk, contract-wise? Even more importantly, what experience will most help Staal to be the player the Penguins want him to be in four or five years when they hope to be a legitimate contender for the Cup?

When it comes to Staal, right now, I can’t answer both of those questions affirmatively, but then again, I’m not the general manager. In the case of defenseman Letang, well, again, he’s a defenseman. Traditionally and historically defensemen take time to learn the craft of NHL defense. Letang doesn’t have the option of going to Wilkes-Barres to adjust to the pro game if should even a brief sojourn be desired at some point in the season. While I hope Letang does turn into the next Brian Raflaski, the same two questions have to be answered affirmatively. Contract-wise, what do you think this kid is going to become? More importantly, is he going to be helped more by a return to major juniors or by taking a regular shift in the NHL? And are the Penguins committed to giving the kid a regular shift in the NHL (because sitting on the pine isn’t going to be in the best interests of a 19-year-old in the least)?

Since I am not general manager Ray Shero, I don’t have the answers to these questions. Perhaps my heading for this entry provides a clue as to the answer. It should be noted that generally speaking, I like to watch talented young players. I like to watch talented younger players, as a general rule, often before I like to watch players in their primes (personal preferences again being made known here). I love to watch those players and dream about what they’ll become and enjoy them when they become all I saw they could be when they were just babies—kids—teenagers—rookies.

Is it the best interests of the teenagers to remain rookies for this season? Is it in the best interest of the franchise to see these 2 teenagers remain rookies for this season?

Oh, and please provide an explanation as to "why."

My answers may not turn out to be Ray Shero’s. But here are my tentative ones, for the moment.

Staal: The contract’s too risky for the franchise, and he needs to be all-over dominant. His already-evident penalty killing prowess aside, I want him to be more than just a great penalty killer. Back to junior, and in the Show to stick next year.

Letang: I really, really like defenseman like him. If the Penguins will commit to playing him in every situation and as a top-6 defenseman all season, he can stick. However, if the Penguins have 6 defensemen who are currently better NHL defensemen, then send Letang back to juniors. If he’s legitimately one of your top 6 defenseman, please, keep him around; for as crazy as his youth and inexperience might drive me this season, I’m sure to enjoy the pretty passes and occasional show.

I don’t know how Shero is going to answer the questions I asked, but I know one thing—for the next five games, whatever happens after that aside—I’m going to enjoy watching the babies—children—teenagers—rookies—play NHL games.
Visuals, Finally

Dad sent me a tape of the season opener, so I finally got to see the Pens play this year. Last night, too, I got to watch an incredibly flat Penguins team take on the Carolina Hurricanes. So all of today’s postings come from the limited perspective of having seen parts of two games—the 1st and 2nd periods of the opener and (unfortunately) all of last night’s game. But hey, I’ve seen games now, which is progress from last week.
One Huge Caveat

Included in the tape of the season opener was the press conference with Mario and the new owner. My initial gut reaction was: Wow, if only there were an arena already built.

Because here is everything I liked about the man behind Blackberries. He was smart and articulate. He was no-nonsense, blunt, and direct. More importantly than those character traits, however, he was so excited to be purchasing the Penguins. He really, really, really wanted a hockey team. Even more so than really, really, really wanting a hockey team, I could immediately perceive that the new owner wanted to win. He knew the players on the team, he knew the promise of the team, and he wasn’t buying a hockey team just for the sake of making money. In all of 5 minutes, I could clearly tell this new owner wants to win the Stanley Cup.

Can you see everything good about the new owner of the Pittsburgh Penguins? Unlike the ownership of the local baseball team, this man wants to win. More so than just wanting to win, he has the money to make sure winning happens. If, in about three years’ time, the Penguins are a player away from the Cup, this new owner is going to bite the figurative bullet and spend the money on that player (salary cap permitting, of course). The new owner loves the game, and more than that, he already loves his new team—and he already wants to win it all. How can you not love a deep-pocketed, passionate owner who wants to win?

However, everything good about the Pens’ new owner comes with a giant caveat, or asterisk, or whatever you want to term it, and that caveat/asterisk comes because ground has yet to be broken on a new arena for the city of Pittsburgh. All the character traits of bluntness and intelligence, which could help the Penguins franchise immensely, can also lead to the Penguins becoming known as a different franchise than the Pittsburgh Penguins. To put it frankly: the man behind Blackberries isn’t going to fool around or be patient with government officials who can’t figure out how to get a new arena constructed and constructed as quickly as possible. The new owner of the Pittsburgh Penguins is not going to ensure the team remains the Pittsburgh Penguins if a new Pittsburgh arena isn’t built pronto. This man is insanely wealthy, has a Harvard MBA, and while he wants to win, he didn’t buy the Penguins to lose money. Fact of the matter is, the team is going to lose money if it stays in Mellon Arena indefinitely. Likewise, as much as the new owner wants to win, he’s not going to have the amenities of a new arena that will enable him to shell out the dollars that will help the team when the time comes to add the last pieces to transform a contender into a champion. Simply put, everything that makes the "Blackberry guy" a potentially terrific owner also makes me wary and—honestly, yes—a little afraid.

Because I like the new owner already. I’m also aware of how fast I could not like the new owner because of how fast he can up and move my team out of my hometown. Here’s the thing: the new owner wouldn’t be wrong to do that if a new arena doesn’t get built. He wouldn’t be. Because his goal, as a owner, are two things: to turn a profit and to win.

The reason I like the new owner—giant caveat aside for the moment—is because he’s already proven he knows how to run a successful business and is clearly capable of applying his intellect to owning a NHL franchise. Yet beyond business success, I already love the new owner’s clear desire to win. This guy wants a winning team. I’m not going to go in-depth on analyzing his Canadian background, his personal hockey coach, and maybe his desire—through ownership—to make a childhood dream of winning the Stanley Cup become reality in too much detail (though perhaps I just did). But if there already were a perfect new 21st century arena in Pittsburgh, I’d be embracing this new owner with everything I’ve got. Because he’s got it all—business sense, money, and the desire to win.

Yet with all those good things comes a giant caveat. This new owner’s not going to wait or tolerate idiocy. Not when he wants to run a successful franchise that wins it all. And if the people who have to pull their strings to get a new arena don’t start pulling their strings, it’s not Mario Lemieux or the new owner I’m going to want to boo. No. My booing will be reserved for the people who couldn’t get their acts together to get a new arena. I’m going to want to chase those officials who couldn’t get their acts together out of town—or at the very least, out of office.

Hear me clearly, elected officials?

Oh, and to the new Pens owner: Welcome to Pittsburgh. I hope the Penguins win several more Stanley Cups, in Pittsburgh, under your ownership. I hope you get a new arena and get a new arena fast.

To the elected officials: Get the arena taken care of. Pronto. Fast. This new owner, he doesn’t play.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

The Old NHL versus the New NHL

There are obvious differences between the old NHL and the new NHL. For example, the amount of power play time in an average game—puh-leaze. The obstruction that used to be acceptable and isn’t anymore. The list goes on.

However, what I have been pondering lately is how the old NHL versus the new NHL affects various types of players. My brother informed me that one of the Penguins babies, defenseman Letang, "will owe his career to the new NHL." Apparently, Letang can skate and play defense well positionally, etc, though he is not a huge behemoth by any means. My brother was noting that the NHL game has changed—brute force will not be enough anymore.

It made me wonder about currently injured Penguins defenseman Brooks Orpik, and if perhaps his less than stellar speed, coupled with hard-hitting ways (not all the time, Pens fans, I’m certainly aware of that) were better suited to a NHL game that no longer exists. Likewise, I wondered about the power forward who dominated the old NHL. The player who was perhaps not gifted with foot speed at all but who could stand in front of the net and dish out body checks and take a beating and use soft hands to put the puck in the net. I wondered if there would be room in the new NHL for players like a younger version of John Leclair or one-time Penguin Kevin Stevens. I wondered if Ryan Malone would ever be able to achieve at an above-average level in the present NHL.

Because the game is different now, and obstruction that was once permissible no longer is, and because so much of the game depends on being able to skate with speed and authority, I wondered about those players of old. The slow-footed yet tall and brutal defenseman who could at least cover in his own zone a little bit? The power forward who had skates of mud but hands of gold?

Is there still room for these types of players in the new NHL? Will defensemen like Letang replace defensemen like Orpik at the NHL level? Will every power forward need to be able to skate at will in addition to having hands of gold? Which old players—renowned in the old NHL—would be out of a job, or have a job description severely altered, by the new NHL?

And, as it pertains to my Penguins—which players do we need to ice the best team for the new NHL, and who are the players who aren’t going to help us win in the new NHL?

Thoughts?
Penguins Musings

My Penguins, on the other hand, managed to win their first game and lose their second game. I didn’t see either game, but from what I have heard and read, here are some thoughts.


∑ Malkin would have made a difference in the loss to the Red Wings. With the reigning Norris Trophy winner all over Crosby and Crosby shadowed, Malkin could have, potentially, had the free room that Crosby didn’t have throughout the game. Malkin’s presence might have been enough to have helped the Penguins to get the one goal they needed to tie the game.


∑ If Marc-Andre Fleury can continue to play goal as well as he has in the first two games, the Red Wings coach is right. With goaltending as good as what the Pens have had for their season’s first two games, the Penguins are immediately a competitive team most nights (even when they have no business being a competitive team). Being a competitive team most nights means the Penguins will be in contention for a playoff berth for much of the season—so long as the goaltending remains as high caliber as it has been for the remainder of the season.


∑ The 2006-07 Penguins are a much better coached and prepared team than were the 2005-06 Penguins. Therrien’s system is obvious in terms of shots blocked, shots given up, and in attributes like the penalty killing being flawless throughout the season’s first two games. Therrien’s system is another factor that will help Pittsburgh to remain competitive in games in which the team has no business being competitive.


∑ With all my talk about games in which this team has no business being competitive, you might wonder why. Frankly speaking, this Penguins team is still way too slow for the new NHL. John Leclair and Ryan Malone, in all honesty, have games that were better suited for the old NHL. However, Leclair brings intangibles, and as for Malone, well, the Penguins don’t currently have anyone better to take his place. In any case, however, there are other NHL teams that are still far more talented and more experienced than this Penguins team. Our young stars aren’t yet as good as they will someday be, nor do they have the NHL experience that makes great players even better than they already are. Our young, talented stars will get experience this year, and eventually, hopefully, through the developmental system or trades, we’ll ice a faster team than the one we currently have. But to be honestly realistic—this Penguins team, talent-wise, is middle-of-the-pack merely due to the presence of extremely gifted youngsters and a couple of aging but once perennial All-Stars. Speed-wise, however, we’re just not where a good team in the new NHL has to be. Period.


∑ I haven’t yet had the chance to see Ryan Whitney play defense this year, but the box scores reveal Whitney has been logging a ton of minutes. He was the fifth overall draft choice of the Pens a few years ago, and I’m really hoping he makes that high draft choice seem a wise, worthwhile investment. I understand defensemen take longer to develop (Chris Pronger’s first three NHL seasons, anyone?) and that Whitney is still learning the NHL game. But if he can take several steps forward this year (not necessarily one giant leap) and start to show signs of becoming a legitimate number 1 NHL defenseman on a real NHL defense, well—that development would go a long way towards helping the Penguins compete for a playoff spot.


∑ I refer to the youngsters currently on the team (the ones who could still be returned to their junior team) as "the babies." Because, well, they are. However, it’s exciting to see young kids successfully able to kill NHL penalties and hold their own—and more than their own—against NHL competition. For that very reason, however—due to how good the kids already are—I’d send them back to junior after their nine game cup of coffee. Because, frankly, I don’t want Jordan Staal merely to know how to kill penalties in the NHL. I want the number 2 NHL draft choice to know how to skate, score, pass, and dominate, and yes, of course, he can kill penalties and win faceoffs, too. Staal isn’t ready to dominate the NHL yet, and I want him to be closer to being able to dominate when the time comes for him to take a regular NHL shift. Plus, I just think 30 minutes of ice in every situation, rather than 10 minutes of ice time in limited situations, is far more beneficial for an 18-year-old kid. Tempting as it might be to keep Staal around to kill penalties this season, the Penguins made a long-term investment in him, and that investment isn’t merely to make sure the kid can kill penalties. Much as love seeing "the babies," play and play well, I’ll be even more glad to see them play when they’re just as talented and one year older.
More Rangers Musings

Seriously, however, the Rangers remind me of my Penguins teams back in the mid to late nineties. (Jagr and Martin Straka were on the team at various points.) Those Penguins teams—by virtue of Jagr’s presence and of a few other gifted offensive players—managed to produce offensively. Defense, however, was—er—how to put this—not exactly a priority. There were days when the Penguins routinely gave up more shots than they took.

In any case, the Rangers’ rookie sensation in goal doesn’t look as though he is about to suffer the ill effects of a sophomore slump anytime soon. But the Rangers are surely not going to help Henrik the Great remain great if they make it a habit to give up 30, 35, and 40 shots an evening. When Jagr and Shanahan are producing, fine, wonderful, the Rangers have two lines that can score, perhaps even score at will. Nevertheless, at some point, team defense is going to have to kick in for the team to make real progress.

Granted, my best Penguins teams often treated defense as an afterthought during the regular season and managed to execute a defensive game plan come playoff time. But the NHL now is different than the NHL was ten to fifteen years ago, and 90 points are required to make the playoffs. This isn’t to say the Rangers will not make the playoffs if they don’t tighten up defensively, it’s just to say—there’s room for improvement given the amount of shots the Rangers are giving up habitually.

To summarize (as if my suggestions carry weight anyhow): Let the offensive stars do their thing, but also make sure the whole team knows how important team-wide defensive play is.

Still, the best thing about the Rangers, at least two games into this season? Just like my Penguins of old—they’re a fun team to watch. No matter how many shots they give up.
Jags and the Rangers

I will always love Jaromir Jagr (set aside the snarky comments for the moment, please). Jags will forever be the talented teenager who won two Cups his first two years in the league and later fulfilled the potential he’d shown early in his career when he became widely recognized as the best player in the game.

All of which is why I was glad to see the newly minted Rangers captain appeared to show no ill effects from last season’s shoulder injury and subsequent surgery. If Jagr can continue scoring two points a game, the Rangers can cross off their captain’s play from their list of concerns. (There are other concerns the Rangers need to address, but more on those in a minute.) As a fan of hockey, and yes, as the person who’s always loved to watch Jagr play, I want him to play at his peak this season. Because, fact of the matter is, Jagr is going to turn 35 this year. Even with all the advances in modern medicine, etc, at some point, age catches up to the greatest of hockey players (witness Mario Lemieux and Steve Yzerman last season as cases in point). Frankly, I’d like another season of remembering Jagr as one of the best, most creative, and most productive players in hockey. I’d like to remember why he’s going to end up in the Hall of Fame. I’d like to enjoy watching him dominate games for at least one more season.

So, yes, although the Rangers play in the same division as my Penguins, I’m still pulling for Jags and the Rangers. Because unlike the young stars of my Penguins (Crosby and Malkin) whose best days are in the future, Jagr and his Rangers have a finite amount of time left to contend for the Cup—that’s just how the nature of aging works.

Just saying—it was nice to see the Rangers win their first two games, and nicer still to see Jagr pile up two points a game—and I’d like to see that continue all season.

Cause yeah, I love Jags—so what?
Qualifier

Everything I post today must begin with the qualifier that the only two teams I’ve actually seen play thus far were the Sabres and Hurricanes on opening night. Nevertheless, I’ll still be posting thoughts based on what I’ve heard from others who’ve seen games as well as my own opinions, etc, garnered from box scores and game recaps.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Malkin

After Mom’s scouting report, after news of an injury, I was relieved to hear that Malkin wasn’t going to need shoulder surgery. I’m very much looking forward to seeing him play, and I know the Penguins are going nowhere fast without a legitimate number 2 NHL center. (Yes, that could be termed a prediction, but based on last season spent without a number 2 center, I think my prediction leans more toward verifiable fact than accurate guess.)

However, if something goes awry with Malkin’s shoulder, and considering his talent level and value to the Pens franchise should he blossom into the star he’s expected to become—as much as it would suck in the present moment, have the surgery. Get the surgery done; do the rehabilitation. Do what needs to be done so that the kid can truly become all that he’s supposed to be, unhampered by an injury.

However, that doesn’t change the fact that I’m thrilled—for the moment—that I get to see the kid play this season.

e
Oh, anyhow

After all that fussing about the pointlessness of making predictions, well, guess what I think I’m—sort of, anyhow—about to do as it pertains to my Pittsburgh Penguins?

Looking at the team’s current roster, it strikes me that the roster’s major parts aren’t that different from the major parts of the team that won the rights to the #2 overall pick in the NHL draft last spring. While Ray Shero appears to have done a good job in bringing in players like Dominic Moore, etc, the Penguins are still relying on Sidney Crosby, Mark Recchi, John Leclair, and Ryan Malone to provide much of their scoring. The Penguins will still be relying on Sergei Gonchar to be their number one defenseman. Unless Recchi, Leclair, and Gonchar—all veterans—put up way better numbers than last year, this Penguins team is going nowhere fast. The complimentary role players Shero has acquired will not make a dent if the Penguins do not get reliable scoring from their wingers, a defense that resembles an NHL defense, and NHL caliber goaltending every night.

I can hear the protests about why the Penguins will be better. Crosby will be a year older and be better. Fine, agree. It’s not enough. The role players will help. Fine, agree. It’s not enough. We’ll have a real second line center in Malkin. Absolutely agree Malkin’s presence—once he is healthy enough to play—will make a huge difference.

Yet the ability of the Penguins to improve on last season’s record depends on large part on players who were members of the team last season. Can Brooks Orpik and Ryan Whitney develop into above-average NHL defensemen this season? Can Mark Recchi and John Leclair put the puck in the net on a regular basis? Can Ryan Malone find the net? Can players who lack speed find ways to compensate for their lack of speed? Can Marc-Andre Fleury or another one of our goaltenders consistently post a save percentage above .900 and give the Pens a chance to win most games?

Notice that none of my statements above are actually predictions. Perhaps I am trumpeting a warning—or a calling card, something to which we can look forward. Because if our wings can put the puck in the net, if our young defensemen can develop quickly, if our goaltender can stop the puck—well, that should be enough to be competitive against most teams most nights. Yet if those things don’t happen, well, didn’t we see that show last year? Bad goaltending, bad defense, slow wingers who couldn’t score? You saw the Sidney Crosby show, but you saw that show last season, too.

Just so you know—I’m not saying it necessarily goes one way or the other way. In fact, I might guess the best the team could hope for is a split somewhere down the middle. They’d still have hope.

But as for actual predictions—nope, don’t do that, but as a fan, I hope for the best—a great season for Crosby, a Calder Trophy for Malkin, a goaltender who can stop the puck consistently, defensemen who learn to play effective NHL defense, wingers who remember how to skate and score, a team that can play a system as necessary—

You look at all of those things and make your own prediction. What’s most likely to happen? What’s most likely not to happen?

Go ahead, be the prescient genius. I don’t mind at all—so long as some of those dreams become reality this season.
Predictions, Prescience, Genius, and Idiocy

My copy of Sports Illustrated arrived this week. This week featured the NHL preview issue. Among other things, SI predicted that the Anaheim Ducks, led by Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger, would win the Stanley Cup over the Buffalo Sabres. SI also featured a NHL general manager assuring fans that neither Crosby nor Ovechkin would suffer the dreaded sophomore slump.

I know this is a blog. I know people expect blogs to give predictions, etc, for how the season will go. Who will win this division, who will make the playoffs, who win the Cup, and list continues. Here’s the thing. Living where I live, I haven’t had the chance to see preseason hockey yet—but even if I had, I’m not into making predictions the way that SI does.

It’s true. I could look like a genius with amazing gifts of prescience if I tell you that there’s no way the Rangers do what they did last year but that the Ducks will excel. I could also look like a complete idiot if I tell you that the Rangers can’t do what they did last year and Jaromir Jagr somehow manages to win another scoring championship while spearheading a New York playoff drive.

Here’s the thing, and granted, this is "my" thing. I can’t make preseason predictions. Ask me a quarter of the way through the season, and then I might be prepared to tell you what I’ve seen—based on actual NHL games that have been played. Until that point of the season, however, please don’t bug me about who’s making the playoffs, winning the division, winning the scoring title, winning the Cup. I don’t write for magazines like SI and THN and get paid big pucks (well, get paid anything, as I do this for fun and for free) to make predictions based on nothing.

Until games that count start being played, let’s stop with the predictions. Let’s see if the Ducks actually have the offense to complement Pronger and Niedermayer, and let’s make sure Pronger and Niedermayer actually complement each other in the correct way on the ice. Let’s see if Jaromir Jagr’s shoulder has healed to the point that he is convinced his shoulder isn’t a problem when it comes time to playing the games. Let’s see real games that matter be played before we determine who will make the playoffs, who will win awards, and who will the Cup.

Although—seriously, this isn’t in jest—provided no injuries befall them, I do agree with the NHL GM who scoffed at the idea that either Crosby or Ovechkin would suffer a sophomore slump. Based on each player’s performance last season, I merely wonder how much better each player will be this season?

The upcoming NHL season should certainly be fun to watch, fun to find out which players will improve and discover which teams have the depth to go the distance—but we only begin to discover those things when the teams start playing games that count in the standings.
Marc-Andre Fleury and Goaltending

I’m not in Pittsburgh, but if box scores, statistics, and news reports are to be believed, Penguins goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has had, to put it politely, a less than stellar training camp. To be honest, I’m still not sure what the Penguins have in Fleury aside from a young goaltender who appears to have lots of potential.

However, lessons should have been learned from last season. In addition to other components of the team never meshing properly, the Penguins were done in, early last season, by sub-par goaltending. If the team hopes to compete for a playoff spot this year, the Penguins cannot have sub-par goaltending at any point of the season. In particular, the Penguins cannot start the season with a number one goaltender who is "fighting the puck" or slumping or whatever the correct term is for when goaltenders cease to stop the puck.

For the sake of the Penguins future (and right now Fleury has been projected to be the Penguins future in goal), I don’t really want Fleury to be dispatched to Wilkes-Barre to start the season. Likewise, I’m not sure that benching a young goaltender for a long period of time is going to prove helpful to that young goalie’s development. So while (and keep in mind I write without having seen any preseason games or workouts) I’d tend to keep Fleury on the Pittsburgh Penguins roster for the moment, there’s a bigger issue that has to be acknowledged.

That bigger issue is goaltending as a whole. Whichever goaltender gives the team the best chance to win games, particularly early in the season, has to be the goaltender who plays. Goalies, perhaps more than other athletes, are suspect to hot streaks. And when a goalie gets hot, you play the hot goalie. Based on training camp reports, Fleury doesn’t appear to be the hot goalie right now, and for a team that wants to re-establish itself as one that can at least compete—you have to play the hot goalie. You have to play the goalie who gives you the best chance to win games.

Here’s to hoping that goalie eventually and quickly turns out to be Marc Andre Fleury. But if Fleury isn’t the guy, the Penguins have to place the best guy they have in front of the net if they want to regain a competitive edge this season.